The International Grains Council raised its forecast for global grains consumption for 2017/18 on Thursday, signalling a bigger drawdown of world stocks than previously expected. The IGC, in its monthly report, revised its global grains consumption estimate for 2017/18 up by 7 million tonnes to 2.086 billion tonnes, just below the 2.087 billion forecast for 2016/17.
The group attributed the increase to higher industrial consumption in maize-based ethanol in the United States and starch in China. "Consumption is projected to match the previous season's high, underpinned by robust food, feed and industrial demand," it added in its report.
It also lowered its forecast for the 2017/18 global grains crop by 1 million tonnes to 2.053 billion tonnes, down from a record 2.210 billion tonnes in 2016/17. It maintained its 2017/18 corn production forecast at 1.026 billion tonnes, down from 1.065 billion in 2016/17. Wheat output was also unchanged at 736 million tonnes, down from 754 million in 2016/17.
Global stocks going into 2017/18 were boosted to 513 million, with the IGC noting this will "help to cushion the drop in supplies." Stocks, which are set to contract for the first time in five seasons, are seen 12 million tonnes lower at 479 million tonnes by the end of the 2017/18 season. The IGC boosted its forecast for total grains production in 2016/17 by 8 million tonnes to a record 2.12 billion, from 2.012 billion in 2015/16. IGC also raised its soybean crop forecast for 2016/17 by 5 million tonnes to a record of 350 million tonnes due to better yields in South America.