Keep your fingers crossed

05 Jul, 2017

The question where Pakistan figures in the United States' regional policy has no easy answer. Although President Trump has threatened to harden his approach towards Pakistan, the chairman of influential US Senate's Armed Services Committee, Senator John McCain, says military operation by Pak Army against terrorism is a "great success story and strong Pakistan-US relationship is only way to succeed." What a mismatch - only a short while before the McCain-headed five-member delegation flew over South Waziristan and saw infrastructural development undertaken following the operation a US drone conducted a raid in the tribal area. And what a double-speak that a week or so after the Trump administration declares the Kashmiri leader Syed Salahuddin an "international terrorist," Senator McCain insists that there is no change in the US policy on the longstanding Kashmir dispute. The Senators also wanted to visit the Line of Control, but bad weather held them back. The LoC is intensely hot these days mainly due to growing Indian belligerence. Unfortunately, however, Trump administration is dangerously bending backward to appease India. The situation therefore gives birth to some simple questions: Were the American Senators here to offset a strong pro-India tilt which was so much in evidence during Narendra Modi's visit to Washington? Were they here to dissuade the host government from its fast-growing bilateral relationship with China? There is however one hint that tends to indicate the real motive behind Senators' visit, as it comes out from Senator McCain's quote: "our relationship (with Pakistan) is more important perhaps than ever before." Perhaps, it is important now because the Senate's Armed Services Committee wanted to know firsthand what Islamabad thinks of US sending more troops to Afghanistan. There is perhaps a kind of mismatch between them - while Washington is for more war in Afghanistan, Islamabad is for peace and national reconciliation, possibly in the framework of the China-initiated move.
If the history is any guide, a few thousands more troops won't succeed in winning the war in Afghanistan. The anti-government forces are stronger now than ever before as they control half of Afghanistan. Pakistan is relevant to the situation because of its thinking that a peaceful neighbour on its western border would be to its great strategic advantage. It was Pakistan that organized the first face-to-face contact between the government in Kabul and the insurgents. Unfortunately, however, it was subverted. There is this Chinese move now. It has the right potential to help initiate an intra-Afghan peace dialogue. Too much emphasis on the so-called counter-terrorism plans and anti-Haqqani mindset would lead us nowhere. The Haqqanis are blue-blooded Afghans and their stake in a peaceful Afghanistan is no less critical to them. And if a surge had not worked in Iraq the situation in Afghanistan has made the prospects of its success even dimmer. No wonder then even former Afghanistan president, Hamid Karzai, has opposed the American move to send more troops to his country. It is one's expectation that the US Senators would oppose sending more troops or more war to Afghanistan while seeking support of the country's neighbours to help revive and strengthen the cause of national reconciliation. One more issue they should help sort out is the unhelpful attitude of President Ashraf Ghani. When learnt that Senator John McCain sought Pakistan's help in restoring peace in Afghanistan he instantly rejected the idea, wrongly insisting that Taliban are Islamabad's proxy. The question whether or not these US Senators will succeed in lending some sanity to the Trump administration's mindset on Afghanistan will find an answer anytime soon. We hope that the John McCain-led team of Senators will help prevent the administration from further pruning the aid package to Pakistan. We are keeping our fingers crossed that the US Senators will be acting in Pakistan's favour.

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