Pakistan's GDP growth projections by multilateral lending agencies are more realistic than the 6 percent growth budgeted by the government for the current fiscal year, domestic economists maintained. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected 5.2 percent GDP growth for the current fiscal while Asian Development Bank (ADB) has projected 5.5 percent.
Talking to Business Recorder, economist and advisor to Former Chief Minister Balochistan, Qaiser Bengali said the government growth number for last fiscal year was highly disputed; and contended that the GDP growth would not cross 5 percent for the current year; former advisor to Finance Ministry Sakib Sherani concurred.
Bengali pointed out that last fiscal year growth was disputed by economists because there were some very serious inconsistencies in the data. He noted that 29 million tons sugar production was shown in the large scale manufacturing (LSM) when there was considerable decrease in sugar crop cultivation area. He also accused the Finance Division of fudging data and stated that data manipulation that began with former Finance Minister Shaukat Aziz has taken not only firm root in the Finance Division but has evolved into an art form.
Sakib Sherani said that GDP growth number for the current fiscal year seems ambitious and very challenging given the ground realities. An official of Finance Division, however, stated that "if you accept 5.3 percent GDP growth number for last fiscal year then 6 percent GDP growth for the current fiscal year appears quite logical."
He acknowledged on condition of anonymity that there were serious reservations on growth in 2016-17 and added that there were speculations that a different growth rate was worked out by the national accounts committee however it was subsequently changed to show higher growth.