Prices rise as Brexit turmoil, weak stocks spark safe-haven bid

15 Nov, 2018

NEW YORK: US Treasury prices rose on Thursday, sending yields to two-week lows across the curve, as concerns about a weak stock market and Britain's exit from the European Union prompted investors to seek the safety of government bonds.

"There are just too many things going wrong at the moment. People are scrambling for safety here," said Stan Shipley, fixed-income strategist at Evercore ISI in New York.

Days after drafting a divorce deal, Britain's exit from the EU took a turn for the worse after Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit secretary and other ministers quit in protest as euro-skeptic lawmakers stepped up efforts to oust her.

Consequently, the US Treasuries' 10-year interest rate premium over British government bonds rose to its highest since mid-1984. The spread separating the benchmark 10-year gilt from its higher-yielding US equivalent widened to 174 basis points, a level last seen in June 1984, according to data from Refinitiv.

"Even though I and the chief economist here and really most economists see no sign of recession any time soon, investors are more concerned than we are," Shipley said. "They're seeing lower oil prices, which is a sign of weak global demand, they're seeing Brexit problems, and as a consequence those credit spreads are rising rapidly."

Widening credit spreads reflect anxiety in the market.

US stocks were down again on Thursday, led by a slide in growth stocks including Facebook and Amazon.com Inc .

US crude futures recovered on Thursday, but had plunged 7 percent on Tuesday, down from a four-year high only a month ago. Tuesday marked a 12th straight session of declines, the longest losing streak on record, shaking a market that was bracing for supply shortfalls just a month ago.

Global factors overshadowed Thursday's slew of US economic data, which came out mixed, but should keep the Federal Reserve on track to raise interest rates multiple times starting in December.

US retail sales were up 0.8 percent in October, but excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales increased 0.3 percent last month, lower than expected. These so-called core retail sales correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of gross domestic product.

The other economic numbers such as US jobless claims were weaker than expected, while import prices rose more than forecast, but underlying imported inflation pressures remained tame amid a strong dollar.

In mid-morning trading, benchmark 10-year Treasury note yields fell to 3.092 percent, from 3.12 percent late on Wednesday.

US 30-year yields dropped to 3.341 percent, compared with Wednesday's 3.355 percent.

On the short end of the curve, US two-year yields declined to 2.837 percent, from 2.862 percent on Wednesday.

Copyright Reuters, 2018
 

Read Comments