After months of deliberation, US President Donald Trump has finally unveiled his strategy for Afghanistan and South Asia, exhibiting his trademark arrogance as well as poor understanding of the conditions in the region. The "core pillar' of the strategy is a shift from a time-based approach of his predecessor Barrack Obama to an open-ended one. "We will not talk about numbers of troops or our plans for further military activities. America's enemies must never know our plans, or believe they can wait us out," he said. That though won't worry the Taliban. As one of their fighters famously told a journalist a while ago, "they [the Americans] have watches, we have time."
Considering that his Defense Secretary James Mattis had earlier announced sending about 4000 troops, the surge is unlikely to be radically higher than that. At present, Nato forces comprise approximately 13,000 troops, including 9,800 American soldiers, plus 26,000 US military contractors. It is worth recalling that Obama, who had termed the war in Afghanistan as a "war of necessity" and the one in Iraq "a war of choice", had made drastic increase in troop level from a little over 30,000 during his first term in office to more than 100,000 in 2011. Yet that did not help to defeat the Taliban. The new policy can prolong the stalemate, not win the war.
Two of the three key points of the "dramatic changes" on the way are directly or indirectly related to Pakistan. The second pillar of Trump's strategy "is to change the approach in how to deal with Pakistan." The only positive thing he had to say in the context was to recognize that the Pakistani people had suffered greatly from terrorism and extremism (due to blowback from America's two misadventures in Afghanistan). Then came the real part: insults and threats. Shaking his finger at this country he said, "We have been paying Pakistan billions and billions of dollars. At the same time, they are housing the very terrorists that we are fighting. But that will have to change." The president, of course, is saying he will use economic pressure (reimbursements for military and logistical support have already been reduced) and drone incursions, which never stopped. Pakistanis are used to hearing the US' 'do more' refrain - an annoying attempt to blame its own failure to vanquish the Taliban on them. There is no denying though that in the past Pakistan did hedge its bets by looking the other way as the powerful Haqqani network camped on its territory. The group is now believed to have gone back. Islamabad has its own concerns about the TTP terrorists having sanctuaries on the other side of the border. A sensible way forward was, is, to address mutual concerns in a spirit of cooperation.
The change in approach Trump offered is not only counter-productive, it can backfire. He let it be known that Pakistan's nuclear facilities are in US' crosshairs. That must have sent alarm bells ringing in Islamabad and Rawalpindi. A "critical part" of his new plan for South Asia is to further develop strategic partnership with India by assigning it a greater role in Afghanistan. All praise for India, he asked it to "help us more with Afghanistan, especially in the area of economic assistance and development." There are some well-meaning people here too who see no harm in this, arguing that Afghanistan is a 'sovereign' country free to forge relations with any other nation it deems fit; and that it needs all the help it can get from wherever to rebuild its war-devastated economy and infrastructure. Both arguments fly in the face of facts. Afghanistan is under foreign occupation; the occupying power uses its authority to serve its own interests rather than those of the people of Afghanistan. Trump himself said the US is not there for nation-building but to kill terrorists ie, for the furtherance of its own objectives, which may not be restricted to the Taliban problem.
As for India's economic assistance, there are no free lunches in this world. Its investments are aimed at buying influence for use against its arch rival, Pakistan. There is enough evidence - backed by the Delhi government's publically stated policy of giving Pakistan grief by undermining its internal security, economy, and exploiting its political difficulties, especially in Baluchistan - of its intelligence operatives using Afghan soil to launch terrorist attacks into this country via TTP terrorists and Baloch insurgents.
Bringing India into the equation can only intensify tensions in the region, leading to disastrous consequences. The hard-line government in New Delhi surely is delighted to hear the US president's words, and may even feel encouraged to embark on some misadventure, such as a 'strategic strike' it has been longing to launch across the Line of Control in Kashmir. This "critical part" holds grave repercussions for Afghanistan. It will draw an angry reaction from Pakistan. In fact, Trump admitted the situation in Afghanistan could worsen "because Pakistan and India are two nuclear-armed states whose tense relations threaten to spiral into conflict. And that could happen." He would have been wise to help the two adversaries address the bilateral issues of contention through revival of the stalled peace process.
The new initiative can hurt the US' own interests. It needs Pakistan to resolve Afghanistan. The vital logistical supplies route for US forces in Afghanistan goes through this country. More important, this conflict will ultimately be settled at the negotiating table. Pakistan may not be in a position to dictate to the Taliban, but it can push them in that direction. Chiding it at this point in time can have the effect opposite to the one desired. Trump has failed to grasp the reality that global geopolitical landscape is changing fast. The world is no longer unipolar and the US its sole superpower. In the evolving multi-polar scenario Pakistan is aligning itself ever more closely with China as well as Russia, who are actively engaged in a dialogue process with the Taliban for a peaceful resolution of the Afghan conflict. Following Trump's speech, both Beijing and Moscow issued statement in support of Pakistan. It remains to be seen who would be fretting more in the days to come: Pakistan or Trump's America.
saida_fazal@yahoo.com