South Africa's record 2017 maize harvest is expected to more than double last year's yield after good weather conditions boosted production, a Reuters poll of five traders and analysts showed on Friday. The government's Crop Estimates Committee (CEC), which will provide its seventh production forecast for the 2017 crop on Tuesday, is expected to peg the harvest at 16.135 million tonnes up 107 percent from the 7.78 million tonnes reaped last year when yields were hit by an El Nino-triggered drought.
The CEC's pegged the 2017 harvest at 15,969 million tonnes in its last forecast in July. The 2017 crop which will surpass the 1981 record of 14.656 million tonnes, is expected to consist of 9.549 million tonnes of white maize and 6.586 million tonnes of the yellow variety, used mostly for animal feed. "The areas that have completed the (harvest) process reported exceptional yields following good summer rainfall and an increase in area planting/acreage," said Wandile Sihlobo, an economist at the agricultural business chamber.
Maize prices have remained depressed due to the higher crop, with the white maize futures contract due in December down 65 percent from its peak of 5,376 rand a tonne hit in January last year to 1,896 rand at its close on Friday. "The key focus now will be on the export side - the country is sitting on large stocks which could keep prices under pressure for some time if we don't see good export activity in the coming months, especially white maize," said Sihlobo.
The staple white maize is mainly for human consumption in South Africa. Persistent low maize prices may result in farmers, many of whom have high debts following the drought, reducing next year's maize plantings and switching to more profitable crops such as soy beans.