The International Grains Council (IGC) on Thursday raised its forecast for the world wheat crop in 2017/18, largely driven by better than expected harvests in the Black Sea region. The inter-governmental body, in a monthly report, projected the global wheat crop in 2017/18 would total 742 million tonnes, up 10 million from its previous forecast but still below the prior season's 754 million.
The IGC raised its forecast for Russia's wheat crop by 9 million tonnes to 80 million tonnes and Ukraine's crop by 2.5 million tonnes to 26 million tonnes. The improved outlook for the Black Sea region more than offset a decline in Canada, where a crop of 25 million tonnes was forecast, down from a previous projection of 27.6 million tonnes.
Russia was forecast to be the top global wheat exporter in the 2017/18 season with shipments of 32 million tonnes, up from the previous season's 28 million tonnes. "Grains exports from the Black Sea region could surpass 90 million tonnes for the first time, accounting for one quarter of global trade, but there is speculation among market participants about possible logistical constraints," the IGC said.
The IGC cut its forecast for global corn (maize) production in 2017/18 by 3 million tonnes to 1.017 billion, reflecting lower crop forecasts for the European Union and China. Total grains production was put at 2.049 billion tonnes while consumption was seen at a record 2.089 billion tonnes.
"With grains consumption edging higher, world stocks may contract for the first time in five years, including in the United States and China," the IGC said. The IGC put global soyabean production in 2017/18 at 347 million tonnes, up from a previous forecast of 345 million tonnes but still below the prior season's record high of 351 million tonnes. Consumption was seen rising to a record peak of 351 million tonnes. "With continued growth in demand for soyabean products set to push total use to a new high, global inventories are likely to tighten," the IGC said.