Rouble steadies, likely to gain; stocks up

19 Nov, 2018

MOSCOW: The rouble was steady on Monday, pricing in higher oil prices and month-end tax payments amid risks of higher volatility caused by Thursday's market holiday on Thanksgiving in the United States.

At 0743 GMT, the rouble was little changed at 66.00 against the dollar and gained 0.1 percent to trade at 75.25 versus the euro.

"The tax factor will be playing on the rouble's side," said Dmitry Polevoy, chief economist at Russian Direct Investment Fund.

Russian exporters usually convert dollar revenues into roubles to meet local taxes that may take up to 1.9 trillion roubles ($28.80 billion) out of the market by the end of the month, according to a Reuters survey.

This week, the market also awaits data on Tuesday that could provide hints on the central bank's future rate moves. The finance ministry is also in focus as it will decide on the bulk of treasury bonds to offer.

Demand for the government bonds is seen as a gauge of market sentiment, given uncertainty about whether Washington will impose sanctions on holdings of Russian state debt.

Market volatility could get a boost from Thanksgiving, when Russian markets will be open but trading will be light. Traders are likely to minimise exposure to risky assets.

Looking forward, the rouble still has chances to return back to the range of 60 to 65 against the dollar by the end of this year if there are no major developments on the external front, ING analysts said in a note.

Brent crude oil, a global benchmark for Russia's main export, was supportive for Russian assets by gaining 1.2 percent to $67.53 a barrel.

The dollar-denominated RTS index was up 0.4 percent to 1,138.9 points, while the rouble-based MOEX Russian index  was 0.5 percent higher at 2,384.8 points.

Copyright Reuters, 2018
 

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