After strong weekend storms, early spring rainfall threatens to cut by half the planted area of soya and corn in Argentina's largest producing province of Buenos Aires, analysts said on Tuesday. Above average levels of humidity now affect 4.8 million hectares, or 28 percent of Buenos Aires's agricultural lands, according to farm group Carbap. Moisture has been accumulating since early in the year.
Dry conditions forecast during the second half of September could bring some relief to the affected regions, but rain returning in October could bring significant losses to plantable areas. Buenos Aires province accounted for 33 percent of soya area and 25 percent of corn in the 2016/17 crop year. "Buenos Aires decides its fate in October (the beginning of the Argentine spring). If October comes with a lot of rain... game over," said G. Heinzenknecht, meteorologist at the Applied Climatology Consultant (CCA).
Less soya and corn from Argentina, the world's No. 3 exporter of both, would come at a time of massive global supplies and low prices. Gonzalo Hermida, coordinator of the forecast department at the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange, said some areas of the province have been ruled out for grains planting due to excess water.
"We are starting spring with lots of water, so it could rain a lot and cause chaos," he said. Argentina is the world's top exporter of soya oil and soya meal. Earlier this month, the Rosario exchange estimated a 2017/18 soya area of 6.3 million hectares and corn of 18.7 million hectares. The 2017/18 wheat crop has already been planted. Hermida said that the Buenos Aires grains exchange was evaluating increasing its estimates for rain related losses, currently at 80,000 hectares out of 5.35 million hectares.