Soyabean imports by China, the world's biggest buyer, are likely to remain unchanged in 2017/18 at this year's record level of 93 million tonnes due to a rise in domestic production and higher carry forward stocks, leading analyst Thomas Mielke said. China's soyabean output is likely to jump to 16 to 17 million tonnes in 2017/18 year starting from October 1, from 12 million tonnes a year ago, Mielke said in his presentation at Globoil India conference on Thursday.
The country's stockpile is at a record level and nearly 3 to 4 million tonnes more than last year due to higher imports in the last few months, said Mielke, executive director of Hamburg-based forecaster Oil World. China imported 8.45 million tonnes of soyabean in August, customs data showed on Friday, a record for the month of August, as improving margins boosted demand from buyers. "Despite lower imports, China would be able to increase soyabean crushing by about 6 million tonnes due to higher stocks," he said.
India's soyabean production could fall 15.2 percent to 8.9 million tonnes in 2017/18 due to a reduction in area and lower rainfall in key growing region, Mielke said. The south Asian country will struggle in exporting soyameal as soyabean prices have risen due to lower output, he said. "If there is no severe weather problem in South America for the next several months, then it will be very difficult for Indian exporters to export 1.8 million tonnes they exported in 2016/17," he said. Soyabeans are crushed to produce soyaoil and soyameal. India's total oilseed production in 2017/18 could fall 5.7 percent to 33.65 million tonnes, he said.