FranceAgriMer on Thursday lowered its forecast of French soft wheat shipments outside the EU in 2017/8 as the farm office factored in a sluggish export pace so far this season. France, the European Union's biggest cereal producer, has been facing strong competition overseas from Black Sea grain suppliers such as Russia, reducing its export prospects despite a much improved French harvest this year.
In monthly supply and demand estimates, FranceAgriMer cut its forecast for French soft wheat exports to non-EU countries in the 2017/18 July-June season to 9.9 million tonnes from 10.2 million previously. "We are still not seeing any acceleration in wheat exports, which remain well below the level of our export surplus," Olivia Le Lamer, head of FranceAgriMer's grain unit, told reporters.
"We can, though, still expect an improvement in the coming months. France often does the bulk of its export programme in the second half of the season," she said. The export forecast is nearly double the 5 million shipped last season, when France felt the effects of its worst wheat harvest in three decades.
But actual French shipments as of Nov. 1 were running only 12 percent ahead of last season's pace, Le Lamer said. FranceAgriMer raised its outlook for soft wheat stocks at the end of the season to 3.3 million tonnes from 3.2 million, as the reduced non-EU export outlook outweighed a downward revision to supply and a slight increase to projected intra-EU exports.
The office reduced its estimate of soft wheat production to 37.5 million tonnes from 37.9 million, in line with a farm ministry revision this week. But it cut by less the expected volume of crop sold by farmers, seen at 34.2 million against 34.3 million last month. For maize, the office increased its forecast of end-of-season stocks to a three-year high of 2.7 million tonnes, from 2.35 million previously, reflecting increased production and reduced intra-EU shipments.
FranceAgriMer raised its estimate of grain maize harvest production to 12.7 million tonnes from 12.6 million, and made a larger increase to expected volume sold on the market. The estimate of the maize harvest, which is in its final stages in France, could be revised upwards further given that market participants were putting the crop at 13.4-14.2 million tonnes, Le Lamer said. Projected barley stocks were trimmed to 944,000 tonnes from 997,000 tonnes, as a 100,000-tonne increase to expected barley exports outside the EU offset a cut to animal feed use.