Brazilian monthly coffee shipments are expected to remain below historical levels at least until the 2018/19 crop starts to reach warehouses in the world's largest exporter around June, market players and analysts told Reuters. No significant change in the outlook for low availability of export-quality beans is expected ahead of the new crop, traders and analysts said this week, amid strong resistance from well-capitalized farmers to sell their bags at current prices.
Unfavorable weather and an insect infestation have also weighed on availability. Brazilian green coffee exports in October at 2.48 million bags were the lowest volume for that month since at least October 2013. In the previous three years, October export volumes were all above 3 million bags. Green coffee exports for the year through October totalled 21.92 million bags, also marking the lowest amount since 2013 and well below a peak of 27.2 million bags in 2015.
Jorge Nicchio, president of Vitoria's Coffee Trading Center (CCCV), in the state of Esparito Santo, said producers were still holding tight to their beans. Larger volumes are only likely to be shipped around mid-year 2018, if prospects for a large crop are confirmed, he said. Nathan Herszkowics, head of Brazil's coffee industry association ABIC, said producers might be forced to sell at lower prices when the new crop arrives next year. The international coffee market is using alternative origins to replace Brazilian beans in some cases, Herszkowics said. "It is a very competitive market," he said.
Carlos Paulino da Costa, president of the world's largest coffee cooperative Cooxup, said increased production costs in Brazil had led farmers to demand higher values for their coffee. "Brazil is losing competitiveness in the market," Costa said. Cecaf, the Brazil coffee exporters association, cut its forecast for total exports in 2017 last week.
The Brazilian government has estimated that the current crop, which was already harvested, totalled 44.77 million bags versus 51.37 million bags in the previous season. It has yet to release an estimate for next year.