Adviser National Command Authority (NCA), Lieutenant General Khalid Kidwai (retd) on Wednesday said that India is using terror proxies against Pakistan as its sub-conventional technique following realization that conventional war is inconceivable amid the country's nuclear capability.
"An announced sub-conventional direction has been taken by India...The region is now entering 'cold war era' for regional supremacy, and creation of proxies," the adviser said while speaking at a workshop on 'Defence, Deterrence and Stability in South Asia,' jointly organized by Islamabad based Center for International Strategic Studies (CISS) and International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), London.
According to him, there is unlikelihood of a hot war or a conventional war between the two countries because of mutually assured destruction, adding the conflict has shifted towards sub-conventional level that could be seen in full play at Pakistan's western borders with Afghanistan.
General Kidwai (retd) also referred to the public statements by top Indian leadership of 'using terrorism to destabilize Pakistan.' He said that it is because of Pakistan's robust nuclear capability and the policy of full spectrum deterrence which has reduced the chances of conventional war with India. "The era of conventional hot wars is behind us. India can generate as much heat as it likes on Line of Control (LoC) including phantom surgical strikes from time to time, which in any case would be strongly retaliated by Pakistan and that's about it," he warned.
Highlighting the salient features of Pakistan's full spectrum deterrence policy, he said that it envisages possession of a full range of nuclear weapons that could reach every part of the India, having enough yield and numbers to deter rival from its policy of massive retaliation and having liberty of picking targets including counter-value, counter-force and battlefield.
On Pakistan's nuclear capabilities, Kidwai said that the country is self-reliant in nuclear field but the program is not the fastest growing in the world, adding that there are no aggressive overtones to Pakistan's capability.
"The over-arching policy is full spectrum deterrence but within the larger philosophy of credible minimum deterrence," he said, adding Pakistan will maintain peace and security in South Asia with adequate level of armaments at all tiers-strategic, operational and tactical.
He also called for resolution of disputes in the region, saying that the region would remain in flux alternating between "strategic stability and instability if the disputes are not resolved peacefully."
The NCA Adviser said that Pakistan made the right choices while tackling the threats to its security, adding Pakistan will find itself on the right side of the history and the coming decades are likely to validate this. Team Leader IISS, Desmond Bowen spoke about the difference in understanding of deterrence in the West and South Asia. He also underlined the risks associated with the nuclear capability.
"Security of Pakistan is a sovereign responsibility and so is the calculation of risk in these matters. How manageable are those risks now, but above all in times of crises," he said. He questioned the existence of political will in South Asia for stability. Executive Director CISS, former Ambassador Sarwar Naqvi gave an overview of the regional trends. He observed that Pakistan is deeply skeptical of President Trump's South Asia and Afghan strategy.
He also expressed his concerns about nuclear politics rhetoric and the introduction of technologically advanced and sophisticated nuclear weapons. These developments and India's inclusion in Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) could disturb the strategic balance in the region and trigger an arms competition in the Indian Ocean region.
The workshop was attended by diplomats, academics and analysts of strategic issues, who deliberated on regional issues including Pakistan's relations with the US and India, security in Indian and Pacific Ocean regions, and shifts and trends in nuclear doctrine and deterrence.