Opinion amongst the PML-N government's members and their allies seems more and more to be veering towards seeing the ongoing political crisis in Balochistan as a plot against the Senate polls in March. The ruling PML-N has high stakes in that election since it promises a majority to it in the upper house. If to that delicious prospect is added current trends in the run-up to the general elections in July-August, one can understand the PML-N's anxiety about the no-confidence motion moved against its Chief Minister Nawab Sanaullah Zehri. The fear is that whatever the outcome of the no-confidence move, it could trigger dissolution of other provincial assemblies, which could disrupt the Senate elections. If the other provincial Assemblies, particularly those of Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, led by the PPP and PTI, respectively, are dissolved, that may not only put paid to the Senate elections but even disrupt the present democratic dispensation, delay the general elections and usher in an establishment-backed technocratic government for an extended period until the dust settles and democratic business-as-usual, with 'changes', can be restored. This is not as paranoid a scenario as it may seem at first glance. Already there are rumours of some technocrats preening to assume the mantle of holding the extended interim fort. Meanwhile the abandonment of Chief Minister Zehri by his own party and coalition allies is gaining steady momentum. As if this rolling tide of abandoning what increasingly looks like a sinking ship were not enough, Senator Osman Kakar of the Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party has revealed that two of their MPAs have received threatening calls to support the no-confidence motion. This 'epidemic' of calls from some specific numbers is growing. National Assembly Speaker Ayaz Sadiq had referred to similar calls to MNAs not so long ago. Whoever is the author of such calls seems oblivious to the poor light it throws on some state institutions. As far as the no-confidence movers group is concerned, they seem to be growing in confidence, with former home minister Sarfaraz Bugti claiming they have the support of 26 MPAs so far (just seven short of a majority).
The plot or conspiracy is said to revolve around three factors: the Senate elections, Zehri's loyalty to Nawaz Sharif in the middle of the latter's tussle with the establishment, and the overall prism of federal politics. While the second factor lies at the heart of these moves and developments, neither Zehri nor Nawaz Sharif can shrug off their own responsibility for bringing things to this pass. The former has a plethora of complaints against him from members of his cabinet, PML-N and allies, for arrogance. This has obviously steadily eroded his ability since coming to power two years ago to keep the coalition intact and pre-empt any 'revolt' inside the PML-N. Nawaz Sharif on the other hand fell foul of the establishment for a range of alleged 'crimes', not the least of which was his reiterated desire for normalisation of relations with India, prosecuting a former CoAS General Musharraf (retd) on treason and murder charges, attempting to carve out more space for civilian supremacy over the military establishment, etc. And Nawaz attempted to do all this without it seems having learnt any lessons from his previous tenures. He seemed completely oblivious over the four years of his tenure in office to exactly where his strength lay. The opposition, particularly the PPP, pulled his chestnuts out of the fire during the 2014 sit-in by standing solidly by him in parliament. That was all the proof needed to understand that the real strength of any elected civilian government lies in parliament and parliament alone. Contrary to this wisdom, Nawaz ignored parliament (with nary an appearance in the house) and could not resist the temptation to once again go for the PPP's jugular in ham-handed fashion. This has earned him Asif Zardari's hostility and the prospect of seeing his fortress under siege demolished bit by bit, starting with Balochistan.