Brazil is expected to harvest 114.1 million tonnes of soyabeans in the 2017/18 crop season, consultancy Agroconsult said on Thursday, matching an all-time record set in 2016/17. Agroconsult had forecast a 111 million tonne harvest in Brazil, the world's largest soyabean exporter, in November.
Earlier in the day, consultancy AgRural and Conab, the government's food supply and agricultural statistics agency, also raised their soyabean output projections for the year - to 114 million tonnes and 110.4 million tonnes respectively - citing an increase in planted area and favorable weather conditions.
Agroconsult's director Andra Pessoa said soya fields are developing well even though there were delays in planting in some regions due to a drought earlier in the season. Many analysts had expected lower soya output in Brazil at the start of the current season, believing a repeat of near-perfect climate conditions seen last year was unlikely. They are now revising their projections upward.
But Pessoa said there was still a long way to go, with farmers in the early stages of collecting grains and rains forecast during harvesting threatening yields and the size of the crop. Still, Agroconsult expects productivity of 54 bags per hectare, the second best in history after last year's 56 bags, Pessoa said.
Forward soya sales are lagging levels seen in the last five or six crops, he said, as farmers continue to delay deals in the expectation of possibly higher prices. Agroconsult projected Brazil's 2017/18 total corn crop at 91.6 million tonnes versus 94.4 million tonnes in November. The first corn crop (summer crop) was forecast at 26 million tonnes, up from 24.8 million tonnes seen in November.
Despite slow forward sales, Pess?a is positive regarding demand, particularly in the second half. "We may be surprised with demand for soya, which may boost prices above the current level of $9.5 dollars per bushel," he said. While China will continue buying large volumes, economic growth in surrounding Southeast Asia countries is pushing demand, he said, adding Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos and Indonesia could boost soya use in the region as per capita food consumption rises. "We had one locomotive, now we have two," he said referring to China and its neighbours.