Brazil will harvest its largest ever coffee crop this year, as much as 58.5 million 60-kg bags, as weather conditions favour a recovery in both arabica and robusta production, government agency Conab said in its first forecast for the new crop. Conab on Thursday forecast production of between 54.44 million and 58.51 million bags, which would easily surpass Brazil's previous record in 2016 of 51.37 million bags.
Brazil is the world's largest producer and exporter, but a smaller crop in 2017 at 44.97 million bags, which also had quality problems due to dry spells and insect infestations, reduced exports to the lowest level since 2012. "After three years of difficulties in coffee production, this year is much more favourable," Brazil's coffee production head Silvio Farnese told reporters at a news conference in Brasilia.
"We can't say it's a super crop, but it's a normal crop," he said, adding that the expected level of production will allow the country to return to normal levels of foreign sales. Conab projected 2018 arabica coffee output at a range of 41.74 million bags to 44.55 million bags, compared to only 34.24 million bags in 2017, as fields with that type of coffee enter the year in the biennial arabica's production cycle which alternates high and low production.
The agency estimated robusta output at between 12.69 million bags and 13.95 million bags, a strong recovery from 10.72 million bags last year. Conab said in the report Espirito Santo state, Brazil's top robusta producer, is finally seeing a strong recovery in production after back-to-back droughts in 2015 and 2016 sharply reduced output, basically pushing Brazil out of export markets for that kind of bean, which is widely used to produce instant coffee.