According to an internal assessment of the Planning Commission, the PML-N administration missed all major macroeconomic targets set in the eleventh five-year plan: growth rate of agriculture sector registered 2.1 percent against the target of 3.5 percent, industrial output rose by 5.1 percent against the target of 6.3 percent, the services sector grew by 5 percent instead of 5.8 percent target, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was 4.4 percent against the target of 5.4 percent, investment to GDP ratio registered 15.8 percent as opposed to the 22.8 percent target, national savings were 13.9 percent against the unrealistic target of 21.3 percent, exports rose to 20.4 billion dollars against the planned 29.5 billion dollars while imports could not be contained under 51 billion dollars giving a current account deficit of 4 percent of GDP instead of the 1.2 percent of GDP target.
The targets set by the Planning Commission in all eleven of our five-year plans, a practice more usual in a communal economy rather than in a free market economy, have been consistently unrealistic (though the degree has varied from administration to administration); these plans indicated a wish list that was ruthlessly trimmed down by a powerful Finance Ministry premised on the limitations of available resources - be they from the desired domestic resources or from borrowing from abroad. Allocation targets in our five-year plans have, therefore, not been challenged by opposition though during an election year charges of pre-poll rigging have surfaced. Ahsan Iqbal held the Planning portfolio, with the status of a federal minister, between 2013 till October 2017 and given his penchant for developing a 'vision' that encompasses a period well beyond the tenure of the administration, targets by the Planning Commission were even more unrealistic than during the tenure of other administrations.
The eleventh five-year plan's vision was ten-year-long titled Vision 2025 and its seven pillars included desirable though unrealistic objectives - unrealistic not only because subsequent allocations were insufficient but also because it presupposed that that subsequent governments would adhere to the plan priorities or the PML-N government would remain in power till 2025. The seven pillars are as follows: (i) putting people first; developing human and social capital - subjects which had largely been devolved, (ii) achieving sustained, indigenous inclusive growth which militated against Dar's focus on budget deficit reduction, (iii) democratic governance, institutional reform and modernizing the public sector - objectives which remain unfulfilled due to selecting senior management of public sector entities (PSEs) on the basis of nepotism, (iv) energy, water and food security - governance in the energy sector remains poor though generation capacity has been enhanced, Pakistan's water scarcity is getting more alarming with time and food security is a provincial subject, (v) private sector and entrepreneurship-led growth which again has not been met because of the failure to either reform/modernize SOEs, including PIA and PSM, or to privatise all loss-making units, (vii) developing a competitive knowledge economy though value-addition, a pillar that sounds great on paper but never got off the ground, and (vii) modernizing transportation infrastructure and greater regional connectivity - the Metrobus in several Punjab cities may have modernized the transport system but issues of financial irregularities remain and the regional connectivity remains hostage to geopolitics.
However, there are two additional concerns with respect to the eleventh five-year plan. First, the plan itself encompasses the period 2013-15 while approval by the then Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharif, was accorded in 2015; or for two of the five years the plan was not even formulated. Secondly, Nawaz Sharif reportedly directed the Planning Commission at the time of approval to reconcile the figures mentioned in the five-year plan (as there were allegations at the time that the Planning Commission hired consultants based on nepotism prompting allegations of unreliable data) and Budget Strategy Paper (which is prepared by the Ministry of Finance - a portfolio held by, at that time, very powerful Ishaq Dar) to avoid embarrassment. Last but not least, there is considerable evidence to suggest that the data manipulation was being undertaken by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), under the administrative control of the Ministry of Finance. It is now heartening to note that things have dramatically changed with a realization that unreliable data is one of the biggest problems that could affect economies to get to the next level.