Pakistan has surpassed Ethiopia in water scarcity. In the next seven years Pakistan will experience water shedding worse than electricity load shedding with water load shedding for up to several hours. If this is not a socio-economic bombshell than nothing else is. Water scarcity and water contamination are the most lethal weapons of mass destruction. Pakistan is being systematically destroyed by these weapons. The tragedy is that these weapons owe their existence due to our lack of vision and failure of government policies. Pakistan, unlike Australia, which is naturally and geographically water starved, was blessed with abundant water supply. Pakistan started off as a water affluent country in 1947, with per capita availability of renewable water at more than 5,000 cubic meters, is now on the verge of becoming water stressed, with per capita availability down to almost 1,000 cubic meters.
Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources (PCRWR) delivered an alarming warning- if the government does not take action, the country will run out of water by 2025. This gives us just seven more years of doing something immediately to stop this mass leakage of a resource that is not only needed to live but to earn livelihood in this country. Pakistan is an agri-based economy and 90% of water is used in crop rearing and farming. Pakistan's GDP is directly and indirectly affected by the availability and quality of water present for drinking, farming, and thus affecting manufacturing, and exporting. The loss is huge if we calculate that 90 percent of Pakistan's water is used for agriculture, with 60 percent of its population directly involved in agriculture and livestock, and 80 percent of exports based on agri-based textiles. No wonder Pakistan has had the lowest agricultural growth of less than 2.5% in the last 5 years where exports have nose-dived to $20 billion instead of the 29 billion targeted for 2017-18.
The water situation in Pakistan needs an emergency working on war footing response. Long-term strategies include preservation of water bodies and conservation of water. Medium-term strategies include reviewing water treaties, building water reservoirs to ensure sustainable and equitable water distribution. Short-term strategies include water treatment and stakeholder education to economize and optimize the use of available water for different household, sanitation, and industrial purposes. Global warming has had a disastrous impact on our glaciers that our melting at an unprecedented rate. Pakistan is the 7th most vulnerable country in the world due to climatic change. Of the 43 lakes in Pakistan, levels of 26 have dropped drastically in the past few years. Deforestation has created an ecological imbalance, giving rise to extreme weathers of heat, flash floods and earthquakes, etc. The government has given some importance to these matters especially the KP government's billion tree tsunami authenticated by WWF and acknowledged by Bonn Challenge has been followed by Federal government's green initiative programme. However much more needs to be done.
Pakistan dumps water worth $22 billion into the sea every year mainly because of lack of storage capacity and poor conservation practices. Crop development is also unplanned and suboptimal. Since 90% of water is being consumed in agriculture, the crop production is a contentious issue. Sugarcane production is supposed to be the main culprit that guzzles enormous amount of water. However, to stop sugar factories and limit their output is almost impossible as all major politicians of all top political parties are owners of multiple sugar mills earning billions in revenue. Also, farmer education on the right use of water for certain crops can improve water conservation. Wheat studies have shown that many times in times of famine and drought the crop actually increased as it is excessively and carelessly used by the growers on wheat which requires careful use of water.
Water shortage is likely to promote tensions not only internally but cross border as well. The Indus Water Treaty that historically has been contentious yet equitable in deciding the ratio of the Himalayan water sharing between Pakistan and India, has recently become a contentious issue. "Water that belongs to India cannot be allowed to go to Pakistan," said Indian Prime Minister Modi last year. The then Foreign Affairs Advisor, Sartaj Aziz, replied that revocation of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) by India "can be taken as an act of war." This may be just political sparring but can escalate into actual war with shortage of waters on both sides. Pakistan being the lower riparian has always been struggling with this issue. Internally 80% of rural agri-related crimes take place on water distribution issues as the irrigation system is outdated and the feudal power in rural areas asserts its will on diverting water flows to their advantage.
In cities, the main problem is water contamination. Metro cities like Lahore, Islamabad and Karachi are water disasters as 70% drinking water is arsenic and unsafe for consumption. Sewerage pipes and water pipes are all the same with the result that Pakistan has the highest incidence of Hepatitis C in the world. Gastro infections and skin diseases abound. After electricity and gas, water shortage will spike unrest and protests in future. As elections 2018 approach it is important that political parties create their manifestos with these priorities in mind. They must have a water policy that addresses the emergency of water shortages. As per a forecast, in seven years Pakistan will run out of water and thus if water security, water availability and water quality are not prime focus in political agendas, the 2018 elected government may find itself literally left high and dry on water issues.
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