Do more or we will do more; no more or there will be furore. This is the standoff in Pakistan-US relationship. Tweets and threats have replaced diplomacy and dialogue; postures and gestures have substituted for negotiations and actions. Consequences - a loss for all parties concerned; a loss of face for some; a loss of respect for others. The Trump administration flexed its tweeting muscle in the beginning of the year and the Pakistani government stretched its statement muscle thereafter. International relations and policy dialogues are never dealt with this way and thus the resultant deadlock is inevitable and unfortunate.
For the US, Pakistan is just one country that is a readymade case of being cornered and targeted to assert its business in the region. Conditions in the region are conducive for this treatment. The India-Afghanistan alliance has really given the American 'doctrine' of Pakistan being a covert supporter of cross border terrorism a convenient scapegoat for the long and non-conclusive war of terror that the American forces have been conducting for the last 16 years in Afghanistan. For Pakistan its own internal insecurity and the realization by its people that they have been used in this war - willingly or unwillingly - has made it impossible for the government to take open and direct stances of supporting a war that has caused more damage to Pakistan than to any other country in the region.
Donald Trump predictably feels his foreign policy towards Pakistan is aligned to his overall stance of driving home messages to small unstable conveniently pliant governments that American interests have to be protected even at the cost of their own national business. Anybody not aligned to this theme will be shunted out, including his own team. The latest casualty is Rex Tillerson, the Secretary of State. Trump tweeted his removal and acknowledged that foreign policy clashes with Tillerson were responsible. He has been replaced with Mike Pompeo, director CIA. Pompeo has a reputation of being a hardliner especially against Muslims. Pompeo has been honored by and has appeared with US advocacy groups that have criticized Islam.
This tweet, threat, sanction-cycle adopted by US has formally succeeded in ensuring that Pakistan will be placed on the Financial Action Task Force or FATF grey list in June and has been followed up by banning seven companies from Pakistan who are involved in nuclear trade, as all of a sudden, they pose a nuclear threat. The list, prepared by the US Bureau of Industry and Security, declares that all seven companies are "reasonably believed to be involved, or to pose a significant risk of being or becoming involved, in activities contrary to the national security or foreign policy interests of the United States." These companies will literally find it impossible to do any business without a license and go ahead of the ERC ie End User Review Committee of US commerce department.
Not only does this ban represent a trade restriction and scrutiny for Pakistan's nuclear related industry, it also dents Pakistan's chance of getting the membership of NSG ie, Nuclear Supplier Group. NSG was formed as a safeguard against India's Nuclear tests in 1974. India has applied for its membership and Pakistan has responded with its own application. Pakistan applied for the NSG membership on May 19, 2016, after it appeared that the United States and certain other Western nations are actively supporting India's bid to join the group. With the present ban on seven Pakistani companies it may become an excuse to keep Pakistan out of NSG.
The stance affects not just the country but the people of the country. Pakistan is not in the travel ban country list of America; however, the US visa turndown ratio in 2017 was 40% higher than in 2016. Recently, Orya Maqbool Jan, a TV analyst, found out that he was not allowed to board a flight to the US as the US Embassy had found his comments on US losing its war in Afghanistan objectionable. To top it all the Prime Minister of Pakistan Shahid Khaqan Abbasi was also given a hard time at the US airport. He was searched unceremoniously with little regard to his status. There was a sheepish explanation given by Pakistan as to it being a private tour, yet a man with a diplomatic passport does not undergo such scrutiny.
Pakistan's foreign policy has been reduced to either complete silence, or denials or statements of bravado that have added nothing to their existing pitiable position in the comity of regional and internationals nations. Pakistan is geo-strategically the most important country for the US to carry out operations in the region. What is needed is a substantive dialogue that lays down conditions of support in return for selective services. Visits of foreign office officials with statements to pacify each other are nothing more than political hypocrisy which does not last beyond the last farewell speech of the meeting.
What has happened is that Pakistan has adopted a passive/aggressive stance that is bound to create an imbalance in relationships and end up hurting our own interests. For years, there was no clear policy statement by our foreign ministry since it was without a foreign minister for four years; then urged by public pressure a spurt of statements resulted saying "we can do without you" type rhetoric. This is a prime example of an immature policy approach. Trump in any case has established his petulant policy overtures by not only tweeting his approach but following up with a series of hiring/firing decisions in his own team that are reflecting poorly on American international stance. The realization that there is a certain degree of interdependence that both parties need is imperative given the volatility in the region. Once that is accepted a mediation strategy is required to acknowledge the need of a deal that is a win-win for both parties and the region.
What Pakistan needs to do is to develop a think tank that can do intensive scenario planning of the geo political events that are likely to take place in the region in the next five years.
(The writer can be reached at andleeb.abbas1@gmail.com)