Heat waves are widely expected to strike major cities occasionally, the Met Office has forecast with below normal rains in the country during April and May 2018. An average temperature is likely to remain above normal across Pakistan in both months. "The expected rise in temperature during the months of April and May is 1-2°C," it said, warning that the rise in temperature will accelerate snowmelt in Northern Areas and subsequent increase in overflow in Upper Indus region
"Slightly below normal rainfall is expected throughout the country during April and May, however, the frequency and intensity of dust storms is likely to remain higher disturbing the harvesting and threshing activities," it said, adding that up to four spells of western weather systems are expected to disturb the upper parts of Pakistan during April 2018.
"Deficient rainfall will intensify the drought conditions over southwest Balochistan and may transform into moderate while the prevailing drought conditions over Tharparker region of Sindh may exaggerate further, during the month of April-May 2018," the Met alerted. During winter 2018, it said that snowfall remained 20 to 25 percent less than a long term average in Upper Indus Basin mostly in the last February or early March, 2018. "Due to rise in temperature, water inflow will increase in the Indus and Jhelum Rivers," it said.
The water reservoir will remain under stress conditions and relevant agencies are advised for a better management of expected water resources during the period. The provincial agriculture authorities are asked to spread the weather forecast to farmers to ensure making a risk-free decision for harvesting and threshing of Rabi crops as well as sowing of Kharif ones, it said.
"The global climate driver, El Nino is proceeding from negative to neutral phase, while Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are swinging along its neutral values during the period, April to May 2018. Their impact on the weather pattern also seems not pronounced."