Brazil's 2018 coffee crop is likely to yield a record 60.5 million 60-kg bags, a large jump from 50.6 million bags in 2017, Safras & Mercado consultancy said on Wednesday, citing favourable weather and the recovery of robusta output after years of below-average rains in areas that produce that kind of coffee.
The consultancy said that arabica output from the world's largest coffee exporter would likely reach 44.8 million bags, 16 percent above 2017, while robusta production was seen at 15.7 million bags 30 percent more than last year. Brazil's coffee fields are in an "on year" in the biennial coffee production cycle, noted Safras analyst Gil Barabach, who dismissed worries about excessive dry weather late last year. "It is true that the flowering delay and a dry, hot weather last year put some question marks on Brazil's coffee production," he said. "But the trees were capable of recovering."
He estimated good production even in areas with more intense weather problems last year, such as Sao Paulo state's Mogiana region and South Minas Gerais. Record Brazilian production this year has been widely expected and has been a factor behind the fall in arabica coffee prices in New York, along with other reasons such as ample stocks in consuming countries. Safras estimated Brazilian coffee sales from the 2017 crop at 89 percent little changed from the year-ago period but above a five-year average of 86 percent.