Cereal crops in the EU are generally in good shape, partly reflecting improved conditions in Spain after drought last year, but grain belts in the east of the bloc could suffer if hot weather continues, analyst firm Strategie Grains said. After a chilly, damp start to spring, warm spells since last month in Europe have helped the growth of winter wheat and barley, while also helping sowing of spring barley and maize.
The 28-country EU is collectively the world's largest wheat grower and also a major producer of barley and maize. "An improvement to crop conditions in Spain is now confirmed, whilst good yields are also on the horizon for France and Italy," Strategie Grains said in a monthly report.
"Yield potentials are also correct in the UK, Germany and Poland, although the impact of the excessively wet, late-finishing winter is still visible on crops here." However, the firm cautioned that recent hot weather could leave plants short of moisture in parts of the eastern EU.
"Although the winter cereals were in good health in early May in central Europe (Czech Republic, Austria, Slovakia, Hungary) and southeast Europe (Romania, Bulgaria), the first signs of water stress could soon appear if the current hot, dry weather continues," Strategie Grains said. It made minor revisions to its all-EU cereal crop forecasts for 2018.
Projected soft wheat output was trimmed by 200,000 tonnes to 140.8 million tonnes, down one percent from last year, as a combined 600,000 tonne cut to expected production to Germany, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Bulgaria and Denmark outweighed a joint 400,000 tonne increase to forecast output in France, Spain and Romania.
EU barley production was revised up by 400,000 tonnes to 62.2 million, now six percent above last year's volume, as a combined 500,000 tonne upgrade to projected output in Spain and Denmark offset a marginal cut to expected production in Romania, Hungary and the Czech Republic. The Strategie Grains also raised its EU maize forecast, by 200,000 tonnes to 60.9 million, reflecting increased expectations for Germany, Spain, Poland and Hungary. The new 2018 EU maize harvest forecast was three percent above Strategie Grain's estimate of the 2017 crop.