Chicago Board of Trade wheat futures fell Thursday to a near two-week low after the US Department of Agriculture's first official estimate of the 2018-19 US wheat harvest came in above trade expectations, traders said. Chicago Board of Trade July soft red winter wheat settled down 4 cents at $5.06-1/2 per bushel after dipping to $5.00-1/4, its lowest since April 27. K.C. July hard red winter wheat ended down 4-1/2 cents at $5.27 a bushel and MGEX July spring wheat fell 2-3/4 cents at $6.08-1/2.
The USDA projected US 2018-19 all-wheat production at 1.821 billion bushels, above the average analyst estimate of 1.777 billion and up 5 percent from the prior year. The USDA forecast 2018-19 world wheat stocks at 264.33 million tonnes, down about 2 percent from its 2017-18 forecast of 270.46 million, an all-time high. Export sales data disappoints; USDA reported export sales of US wheat in the week to May 3 at 83,400 tonnes (old and new crop years combined), below a range of trade expectations.
Analyst firm Strategie Grains maintained its outlook for a sharp drop in European Union soft wheat exports in 2017-18, while also scaling back its expectations for a rebound next season.