The New Zealand dollar edged higher on Thursday after the country's Labour-led government predicted a larger surplus for the year-ending June while the Australian currency inched up after faster-than-expected jobs growth. The New Zealand dollar rose about a quarter of a US cent to $0.6929 after the budget forecast an operating surplus of NZ$3.14 billion for current financial year, up from NZ$2.54 billion previously forecast.
The kiwi was last at $0.6920, above its recent five-month trough of $0.6855. "The budget and the healthy forecasts show that the government is on track to achieve its fiscal targets," economists at ASB wrote in a note. "In particular, the budget shows that net debt is on track to fall below 20 percent by 2021/22. We do agree with the general trends that the Budget forecasts provide and thus acknowledge that this Budget is a prudent one."
The country's Debt Management Office said it would increase bond issuance by NZ$1 billion a year for the three years ending 2021. The bigger debt issuance plan saw New Zealand government bonds extend losses, with yields up six to seven basis points at the long end of the curve. Across the Tasman Sea, the Australian dollar was up 0.4 percent at $0.7540 even as Thursday's data showed the unemployment rate ticked up to a nine-month top of 5.6 percent.
Encouragingly, 22,600 net new jobs were added in April, topping forecasts for an increase of 20,000 and a remarkable improvement on the unexpectedly weak results of February and March when employment skidded lower. The break-down of the April series was promising too, with full-time jobs up 32,700 compared with a fall of 25,100 in March. "While April then clearly wasn't a bad month, the underlying story remains one of cooling labour market conditions relative to last year," said RBC economist Robert Thompson.
"The labour market still has plenty of slack, and following on from a relatively weak first-quarter wages report yesterday, there is little to suggest that the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) is in a hurry to move." The RBA last cut rates to a record low 1.5 percent in August 2016 and has since remained on hold awaiting a pick-up in wage growth and inflation. Data out on Wednesday showed annual wage growth was a feeble 2.1 percent in the March quarter, crawling near record lows. Australian government bond futures eased, with the three-year bond contract down 2 ticks at 97.715. The 10-year contract slipped 2.5 ticks to 97.080.