A warm, dry spell in Europe may reduce harvest yields for rapeseed, the continent's most important oilseed crop, by adding pressure on plants that have endured adverse weather since sowing, analysts said. Summer-style weather in the past month has helped other crops after a damp, cold start to spring, but coincided with the sensitive flowering stage for rapeseed.
The European Union's crop monitoring service on Tuesday cut its 2018 rapeseed yield forecast, now pegging it below the 2017 level and the average of the past five years. Rapeseed is known as a resilient crop but more hot weather forecast for the coming days was maintaining concern. In France, mixed yield prospects could offset a sharp rise in the area sown.
"The national yield won't be higher than 3.3 tonnes per hectare this year, which is an average level," Fabien Lagarde of oilseed institute Terres Inovia said. Flowering of crops in northeast France was affected by a combination of high temperatures and limited sunshine, he said. France's farm ministry estimates the rapeseed area at 1.50 million hectares, up 6.3 percent on last year. But 2017 also saw a record national yield of 3.8 tonnes per hectare.
In Germany, warm weather made plants grow too fast, dimming hopes that strong yields could compensate for a drop in sowings. "This means that yields this year will be okay but I do not expect bumper yields," one German analyst said. The association of German farm cooperatives last week cut its forecast for the winter rapeseed crop to 4.12 million tonnes from 4.62 million previously, which would be down 3.3 percent from last year and well below the average of recent years.
In Poland, rapeseed production is likely to fall 23 percent from last year to 2.14 million tonnes, said Wojtek Sabaranski of analysts Sparks Polska, citing plants growing too fast and the impact of dryness. "Looking at the present condition of plants, we now project average yields at 2.85 tonnes a hectare versus 3.10 tonnes a hectare achieved last year," he said.
Dryness was also raising a yield risk in Britain. A chilly start to spring meant some crops were not as deep rooted as normal, limiting their access to water, Jack Watts, chief combinable crops advisor at the National Farmers Union. "They are probably more vulnerable than normal to a prolonged hot, dry spell of weather that we appear to be having at the moment," he said. Britain's rapeseed area is estimated to be up 11 percent at 622,000 hectares, according to a planting intentions survey by the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board, which would end five years of decline.