Analyst firm Strategie Grains maintained its outlook for a sharp drop in European Union soft wheat exports in 2017/18, while also scaling back its expectations for a rebound next season. The analyst nudged up its forecast for EU soft wheat exports in the 2017/2018 (July/June) season to 20.4 million tonnes from 20.3 million last month, but this is still well below an estimated 24.2 million tonnes in 2016/17.
"Exports are revised slightly up ... although historically this is rather low, with much reduced Poland and German exports to third countries," Strategie Grains said in a monthly report. "Meanwhile, French exports are expected at the rather unspectacular volume of 8.1 million tonnes, despite an unusually high level of sales to Saudi Arabia (around 0.7 million tonnes)," it said.
Expected German and Polish exports, which Strategie Grains kept unchanged from last month at 2.9 million and 0.9 million tonnes respectively, have been curbed by weather-affected harvests last year. Projected French exports, which were raised slightly from 8 million forecast last month, have been dented by stiff competition from Russia, although French wheat has found alternative demand from within the EU.
Strategie Grains pegged French intra-EU wheat exports in 2017/18 at 8.9 million tonnes.
The analyst firm also cut its forecast for EU soft wheat exports in 2018/19 by 500,000 tonnes, although this would still be much higher than this sseason at 23.6 million tonnes It said a recovery in German and Polish shipments should support higher EU exports next season, but Black Sea origins like Russian wheat were currently the most competitive for the new season.