Parts of southern Russia are in urgent need of rain in the next couple of weeks to prevent a potentially damaging drop in spring grain yields, agriculture consultancy SovEcon said in a note.
Russia is the world's largest wheat exporter. In spring it experienced drier-than-usual weather in its grain-growing southern regions, which produce mainly for exports via the Black and Azov seas.
That meant harvesting began earlier than last year, when close-to-ideal weather conditions produced a record grain crop, and yields on the grain sown in spring could be hit if the dry spell does not end soon.
"If agriculture producers do not see rains in the nearest weeks, the potential of yields will face additional significant damage," SovEcon, one of the leading agriculture consultancies in Moscow, said.
Russia's 2018/19 wheat exports are forecast at 35.0 million tonnes, down 13.6 percent on last season, with the crop expected to fall 16.7 percent to 70.8 million tonnes, according to a Reuters poll.
But many analysts who took part in the poll said their estimates could be downgraded if no rain falls in the first half of July.
SovEcon plans to update its forecast for Russia's 2018 grain and wheat crop next week. In late June, it expected 118.6 million tonnes of grain, including 72.5 million of wheat.
The moisture content in soil of some southern regions is at the lowest level in five years, according to SovEcon, and rains are needed around the southern cities of Krasnodar, Stavropol and Rostov.
According to a state weather forecaster Hydrometcentre, the three regions will see some rain towards the end of next week.