The Crop Watch corn and soyabean yield expectations are now the most elevated of the season as timely rains and the lack of extreme August heat have provided good finishing weather for the subject fields. For the most part, crops are a week or two ahead of normal development pace, meaning that the harvest will start earlier than usual this year in many locations across the country.
Crop Watch 2018 follows one corn and one soyabean field in eight major US Corn Belt states, reporting on weekly progress every Sunday, similar timing to the US Department of Agriculture's observation schedule. (https://tmsnrt.rs/2KYi3a5)
Yield potential is assessed each week in the Crop Watch fields on a scale of 1 to 5, with 3 being average yields relative to the recent farm mean. A score of 5 represents well above average, and possibly record yields.
The eight-field yield average for corn is 4.16, up from 3.88 in the previous week following improvements in North Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois and Ohio. The soyabean average is 4.13, up from 3.91 off increases in North Dakota, Nebraska and Ohio. Both yield scores are the highest of the season. USDA on August 10 predicted the 2018 national corn yield at 178.4 bushels per acre, above last year's record 176.6 bpa. The agency placed soyabean yield at 51.6 bpa, just shy of 2016's record of 52 bpa.
Each week, the corn and soyabean fields are assigned a condition rating between 1 and 5, with 1 representing very poor and 5 being excellent. In the week ended August 26, corn conditions rose to 4.03 from 3.97 in the prior week off an increase in Ohio. Soybean conditions rose to 4.19 from 3.88 as rains improved conditions in North Dakota, Nebraska and Ohio.
As of August 19, USDA's statistics service rated 68 percent of the country's corn and 65 percent of soyabeans in good or excellent condition. More information on Crop Watch 2018, including photos, can be found on Twitter using the hashtag CropWatch18 or by following the handle @kannbwx.
Corn yield potential rose to 4 from a 3.5 in the previous week, and soyabean yield rose to 2.5 from 2 off decent rains during the period. The moisture is very positive for grain fill in corn and pod fill in beans, though many bean fields in the area have thin plants with fewer and smaller pods because of the earlier heat and dryness. The area's soyabean harvest should take place in late September, which is on time, but much of the corn harvest activity will likely be in early October rather than in late October as usual.
Corn and soyabean yield potential remain at 4 and 3.75, respectively. The fields received 0.9 inch (23 mm) of rain last week. Fungicide has likely prevented disease in the corn, but some area bean fields are starting to show areas of sudden death - a soyabean fungal disease. This is not too big a concern yet. The soyabean harvest may begin around October 1, which is normal, and corn will follow.
Corn yield potential rose to a 4 from 3.5 and soyabean yield rose to 4 from 3 after 4 inches (102 mm) of rain fell last week. This was much more beneficial to the soyabeans than the corn. In the area, the corn harvest should begin in about three weeks, and the bean harvest is probably three to four weeks away. This is about a week earlier than usual.
Corn and soyabean yield potential hold at 2 and 3, respectively. The subject soyabean field never fully recovered from a hail event earlier this summer. But the producer notes that on average, most other soyabean fields in the area have slightly above normal yield potential as the last 45 days have featured more than three times the total rainfall of the entire calendar year through the first week of July. These rains came too late to make a big difference for the corn. The driest corn fields will probably be harvested beginning in seven to 10 days.
Soybean yield potential remains at 5, and corn yield rose to 4.5 from 4. The earlier fungicide application to the corn may have helped slow down kernel fill, which is what the producer had been concerned about given the warm weather and fast pace of the crop. The soyabeans are beginning to turn colors and fully mature. The corn harvest should begin in about 30 to 40 days, which is about two weeks earlier than normal.
Soybean yield potential holds at 5, and corn yield is bumped to 5 from 4.5. The fields have received 7 inches (178 mm) of rain over the last 30 days, which has helped fatten up the soyabean pods and develop strong top pod clusters, which add a good deal of yield. The corn harvest will begin in roughly 20 to 25 days, which is just a couple days earlier than normal. The beans should be cut in late September, close to normal.
Corn and soyabean yield potential stay at 5, and both fields received 2 inches (51 mm) of rain last week. The beans have mostly completed pod fill and the corn has begun to dry down. The earlier planted bean fields in the area are the best-looking ones, despite some hardships early on, including being snowed on twice.
Corn and soyabean yield potential nudge upward to 4.75 each from 4.5 in the previous week. The fields received 1.7 inches (43 mm) of rain last week. The corn should hit black layer - the final stage of maturity - this week, roughly two weeks earlier than usual. Pod fill continues for soyabeans near the tops of the plants. The soyabean harvest could start around September 10 and corn would begin about a week later. This is two weeks earlier than normal for both.