The Met Office has warned of a severe drought in lower Balochistan and Tharparkar District in September and November, forecasting the end of monsoon weather system mid of the current month. "Summer Monsoon weather system will gradually diminish during the first fortnight of September and rains will be scanty," it said in its weather outlook for September and November, saying that rains are expected to fall slightly below normal in Khyber Pukhtunkhwa, Balochistan, Central and Lower Punjab and Sindh.
It said that moderate to severe drought like conditions are likely to strike Lower Balochistan and Tharparkar District of Sindh. The mountainous region of Gilgit-Baltistan and Upper Khyber Pukhtunkhwa may receive normal precipitation during September-November 2018. However, the start of snowfall at the higher elevation is likely by October end.
The gradual fall in temperature, snow and glacier melt contribution to the Indus River will be minimal during the two months. Poor monsoon rains, Mangla reservoir could not be filled to its full capacity. Water shortages are most likely feared to hit during Rabi sowing season, it asked the public and authorities to ensure a judicious use of available water.
Monsoon air mass is retreating from Pakistan and Western disturbances will gradually extent to southern latitude in the next 2 to 3 months. The global climate indicators such as El Nino Southern Oscillations (ENSO) Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are likely to oscillate around its neutral position during September-November 2018.