Russia is expected to harvest 105 million tonnes of grain, leaving 30 million tonnes available for export in the 2018/19 marketing season that started on July 1, its deputy prime minister in charge of agriculture said on Monday.
The country's 2018 grain crop is forecast to decline from a record 135 million tonnes in 2017. It will still be a large crop compared with the average of the past five years but the activity of the main exporters for the 2018/19 season is being monitored closely by the agriculture ministry.
The crop of 105 million tonnes "will allow export of 30 million tonnes of grain and fully cover our needs in securing the population with bread and in procurement of fodder", deputy prime minister Alexei Gordeyev was quoted as saying by government website http://government.ru/.
Gordeyev, an industry veteran, has not commented yet on market speculation about potential future grain export limits in Russia, the world's biggest wheat exporter.
Russia's Agriculture Ministry last week said it does not see a need to impose an export duty on grains or to curb grain exports in any other way.
However, Gordeyev's forecast for grain exports is lower than estimates of some other analysts and matches the level after which, according to some traders, Russia could consider curbing exports.
After a meeting with Agriculture ministry officials in August some traders said Russia could consider export curbs once grain exports reach 30 million tonnes, including 25 million tonnes of wheat, in the 2018/19 season. The ministry has denied export limits were discussed.
By Aug. 30 Russia had exported 9.8 million tonnes of grain since the start of the 2018/19 season on July 1. That was up 39 percent from the same period the previous year and included 8.2 million tonnes of wheat.
Some traders have said that exports would speed up in the coming months as traders bet on restrictions in some form some time after December.
The options could follow the pattern of previous seasons, which vary from no restrictions at all to unexpected informal curbs on grain exports and revival of a wheat export tax, currently set at a zero level, the SovEcon agriculture consultancy has said.