The pound is set to be stronger by the time Britain leaves the European Union, according to currency strategists polled by Reuters, but in a year it still won't have come close to recouping its losses since the shock 2016 Brexit vote.
Sterling is due to edge up more than 2 percent against the dollar in six months - just after the March 29, 2019 date when it is scheduled to leave - to around $1.33.
It is then set to climb to $1.37 six months later, according to the poll, taken September 28-October 3, before Prime Minister Theresa May's Conservative Party conference speech on Wednesday.
Forecast ranges in the survey were wide, particularly on the 12-month horizon. But just two out of 64 forecasters said the pound would trade higher than where it was before the shock result in the June 2016 referendum at around $1.50.
The 12-month consensus has fallen along with the pound since the April poll, which was the first time forecasts for where sterling will be after the official leaving date were collected. Nearly every strategist has downgraded their view since then.
That latest median 12-month view has the pound languishing about 9 percent below $1.50. More than two years ago, just before the referendum, respondents correctly predicted in the Reuters foreign exchange poll that sterling would fall by about that much immediately afterward.
So the view that Britain leaving the EU will result in a lasting, not temporary, devaluation appears to be holding. Trade and industry data show that depreciation has done relatively little to boost exports or make Britain more competitive in the meantime.
For there to be any recovery in the pound from the current rate, around $1.30, most foreign exchange analysts say there will need to be positive developments on the terms under which Britain will leave the world's largest trading bloc.
With the Bank of England set to keep interest rates on hold in the interim and mixed signals on economic performance, a steadily-widening gap between UK rates and the US federal funds rate will also keep pressure on sterling.