An improved crop outlook in China led the International Grains Council on Thursday to raise its forecast for world wheat production in the 2018/19 season. The IGC put global wheat production at 728.8 million tonnes, up from a previous forecast of 716.7 million although still well below the prior season's 767.1 million tonnes.
China's wheat crop was raised by a similar amount to 134.7 million tonnes from 122.5 million although it also still trailed last season's 138.2 million. Other adjustments largely offset each other. "Wheat output is also placed slightly higher than before in the EU (European Union), Russia and Algeria, but reduced for Argentina and Australia," the IGC said in a monthly update.
The inter-governmental body also forecast an expansion in world wheat area for the 2019/20 harvest, the first gain in four years, although it noted "more rain is needed for planting and crop establishment in some major producing areas, especially in parts of the EU, Russia and Ukraine". The IGC maintained its forecast for world corn (maize) production in 2018/19 at 1.074 billion tonnes.
A drawdown in both wheat and corn stocks was still expected during the 2018/19 season with overall grain stocks seen falling to a four-year low. Global soybean production in 2018/19 was put at 369 million tonnes, down marginally from the prior month's forecast of 370 million but still well above the prior season's 340 million. "Although the Brazilian planting campaign is progressing swiftly, the southern hemisphere outlook remains tentative at this stage," the IGC said.