A Federal Minister for Planning, Development and Reforms has been appointed also as the Minister of Statistics. This is the appropriate choice and will enhance the role of the Planning Commission as the research and policy think tank of the government. It will enable the availability of data for more evidence-based policymaking and well designed structural reforms. Further, it will become possible to develop an information system which can facilitate the monitoring of performance under special initiatives of the PTI government.
The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) is governed by the General Statistics (Reorganization) Act, 2011. This Act specifies the powers and functions of the Bureau; the role and qualifications of the Chief Statistician; the extent of power to call for information and returns; the right to access a record or document; performance of the function of dissemination of data and the assurance of secrecy of answers, information and returns.
The oversight of the PBS under the Act is to be performed by a Governing Council. There are seven members of this Council, of which three are ex-officio members and four members appointed by the federal government from the private sector who are eminent professionals.
The Chairman of the Governing Council is the Finance Minister also holding the portfolio of Statistics has tended to create a serious problem. The Finance Minister is the captain of the economic team and he/she may have a vested interest in asking for manipulation of economic statistics to give a better picture of the state of the economy than is really the case.
This problem assumed serious proportions during the tenure of the last PML (N) Government. There is strong evidence, on the basis of cross-checks of data from different sources, that some key economic indicators were manipulated. The GDP growth rate was consistently exaggerated, the unemployment rate and the rate of inflation understated and so on. This tended also to create a false sense of complacency in government circles and thereby preclude timely action.
The various functions of the PBS, according to the Act, were also not adequately performed. The Bureau has generally fallen behind in releasing important information which is essential for economic agents like investors to take proper decisions.
There are some Surveys to be undertaken periodically by the PBS. It has consistently been falling behind in performing these data collection exercises and releasing the findings. For example, the last Labor Survey Report is of 2014-15. It used to be undertaken every two years. At a recent meeting in Islamabad the present Finance Minister wandered in the absence of up-to-date information as to what is the extent of job creation in recent years and how much more effort is required to achieve the target of two million jobs to be created annually, which has been set by the PTI government.
Another example of an important survey is the household Integrated Economic Survey (HIES) which used to be undertaken every two years. The findings of the last Survey of 2015-16 have been released only recently. Hopefully, the Survey for 2017-18 has been completed and the analysis and dissemination of the data will now take place with a smaller time lag. This Survey is important because it highlights the levels of income and consumption pattern of different quintiles of the population. It is the basic source for determining the incidence of poverty in the country.
There are also other surveys like the Living Standards Survey and specialized surveys of different sectors of the economy. In addition, there are important Censuses which have to be carried out periodically. Fortunately, the Population Census was conducted in 2017, after a delay of nine years. Credit must be given to the Chief Statistician at the time for organizing and conducting this potentially contentious and mammoth task.
There are other Censuses which are due and are essentially the primary source of information for key activities and planning by different Ministries and attached departments. The last Census of Manufacturing Industries (CMI) was undertaken as far back as 2005-06. Earlier, it was completed in 2000-01. Now there is a gap of twelve years and fundamental changes have probably taken place in the industrial structure of Pakistan.
Another important Census is that of establishments of all sizes in terms of employment and in all sectors of the economy. This provides an in-depth profile of the national economy and enables identification, for example, of the potential income and sales tax bases. Now that the population enumeration has been undertaken this Census of Establishments needs to be undertaken once again after a gap of almost thirteen years.
To top it all, important annual reports are not being published on time. For example, the publication, Agricultural Statistics Year Bok, was last brought in 2010. The Compendium on Environment Statistics came out last in 2015. The last Monthly Review of Foreign Trade was of December 2017.
There is a need for PBS to catch up in all its processes and commitments. One of the central issues is that of capacity both for field enumeration and for expeditious analysis of data collection. Apparently, there is no Chief Statistician at this time. Priority has to be given to this appointment. The Governing Council needs to ensure that adequate arrangements are made for financing and staffing of PBS.
Once greater technical capacity is available it needs to undertake the following to upgrade the level of statistics in order achieve better planning and more close monitoring of economic developments:
(i) Updating the base year (currently 2007-08) of the Price Indices.
(ii) Rebasing of the National Income Accounts, with technical assistance from the United Nations Statistics Division. The last such exercise was undertaken as far back as 2005-06.
(iii) Construction of a Quarterly Series of the GDP. India has had this information for many years. It will greatly facilitate timely economic decision making. An abortive attempt was made earlier in 2013-14.
(iv) Collaboration with the Provincial Bureaus of Statistics in preparation of Provincial GDP estimates by sector. This will greatly facilitate planning at the Provincial level. Here again, India, has had sub-national estimates of the GDP since the '50s.
Overall, one more indication of the New Pakistan will be greater reliance on statistics for research and for informed and evidence-based policymaking. The Finance Minister has also given the unambiguous assurance that the PTI Government will not engage in manipulation of information on key economic indicators.
We wish the newly-appointed Minister of Statistics success in reforming and strengthening the PBS and its affiliated organizations. This will also contribute to more and better research in the domain of social sciences in the country.
(The writer is Professor Emeritus at BNU and former Federal Commerce, Planning and Finance Minister)