The slugfest between the PTI government and the opposition, particularly the two largest opposition parties, the PML-N and PPP, is intensifying. The Sharif brothers are cooling their heels in jail while the leadership of the PPP, including Asif Zardari, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, Faryal Talpur, Sindh Chief Minister Murad Ali Shah, are in a list of 172 people placed on the Exit Control List (ECL) on the basis only of a Joint Investigation Team (JIT) report alleging their involvement in the fake bank accounts and corruption cases. Had the PTI government maintained a distance from the accountability process, charges of the drive being partisan, one-sided, politically motivated and a witch-hunt may have been avoided. But the PTI being the PTI, it could not restrain itself from unnecessarily driving home the point, leading to the accountability process being rendered controversial.
Overkill on the political front has been the abiding characteristic of the PTI in power since the 2018 elections. It is one thing being in the opposition (or atop a container) and hurling all kinds of accusations at one's opponents and rivals (although even there an intelligent rather than an abusive tirade seems preferable), and quite another being in office. In the latter position, ruling parties are expected to display far more responsibility, weigh their words carefully, and not make allegations unless they are backed by facts and the requirements of the law. Otherwise, continuing in the opposition agitation mode after entering office may temporarily embarrass the targets of the government's relentless tirade, but is likely eventually to so polarise the polity as to threaten instability, chaos, and bigger storms on the horizon.
Merely to state this general argument is sufficient to remind us how the PTI government has, in the process of pillorying its rivals in a manner that does not fit well with the role of a ruling party, arguably is laying the foundations of a possible united or at least mutually cooperating opposition mounting fierce resistance inside and outside parliament. The implications are that the considerable weight of such an opposition in parliament could complicate legislation to the point of paralysis. Agitation outside parliament could produce even worse outcomes. But the PTI seems either oblivious to such outcomes or reckless in its approach.
There was at least some political sense and logic to the PTI's campaign against the PML-N leadership, given that the Sharifs are the biggest rivals of the PTI in Punjab, the powerhouse of the federation. But to go pell-mell after the PPP leadership and openly ask for the resignation of the Sindh chief minister on the basis only of his name being placed on the ECL by the Interior Ministry headed by Prime Minister Imran Khan himself, is, to put it politely, putting the cart before the horse. As if this were not enough, the PTI has openly declared war on the PPP's Sindh government, bandying about claims of moving a no-confidence motion with the help of the opposition in the Sindh Assembly and alleged PPP MPAs prepared to defect. Governor's rule was also mentioned as one of the options, although accompanied by mixed signals. That idea has been shot down by the PPP pointing out that after the 18th Amendment, governor's rule cannot be imposed except by a decision of the provincial Assembly.
A no-holds-barred war of words has broken out between the PTI and the PPP in the wake of these developments. The prime minister alluded to the 'shrieks' being heard from Sindh when the accountability process has not even fully geared up. To this, Chairman PPP Bilawal Bhutto Zardari has said yes, cries are being heard from Sindh because its rights as a federating unit are being violated, and from all over the country because of the misery inflicted on the people by the inept governance of the PTI government. This round at least seemed to be a draw. But former Leader of the Opposition and PPP leader Syed Khurshid Shah set the cat among the pigeons by warning the government of the consequences of arresting Bilawal. In fact, in the light of the PTI's moves against the Sindh government, he accused the PTI of striving for one-party rule throughout the country or, less flatteringly, a civilian martial law.
Toppling the PPP's Sindh government seems a tall mountain to climb. Perhaps this realisation is behind the unexplained cancellation of federal Information Minister Fawad Chaudhry's tour of Sindh to drum up PPP defectors for a no-confidence motion. But the PTI coalition government in Balochistan too is showing signs of strain. The Balochistan National Party-Awami (BNP-A), hastily cobbled together from the province's cast of usual collaborators with the establishment before the 2018 elections, has split into two mutually hostile factions. This hothouse flower's shelf life therefore has become uncertain. On the other hand, the Balochistan National Party-Mengal (BNP-M) seems to be reconsidering its course. Initially the party's head, Sardar Akhtar Mengal, had entered into a 'coalition' in the Centre with the PTI after signing an agreement to address the lingering tragic issue of missing persons. A delegation of the party led by its leader had met the prime minister recently to request a meeting be arranged with the CoAS on the issue. Not much has been heard since on that front. That could be a factor in Akhtar Mengal's reported meeting with Asif Zardari, presumably to explore areas of cooperation between the two, particularly in the increasingly unsettled political set up in Balochistan.
The PTI government must wake up to the fact that it faces a potential pit dug by its own hands in Sindh and the disintegration of its coalition government in Balochistan. The portents, far from pointing in the direction of a one-party rule throughout the country, indicate possible turmoil that could engulf the PTI governments in the Centre, Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa too. Pakistan's history, for those open to learning from it, suggests trying to be master of all an incumbent government surveys has more often than not led to disaster for it and for democracy. Even if, on the basis of its track record in opposition and now in government, the PTI is little interested in the latter, at least enlightened self-interest should encourage it to exercise restraint. As it is, its representative and democratically elected credentials remain under a dark cloud of allegations of rigging in the 2018 elections that brought it to power.
The people of Pakistan are caught on the horns of a dilemma. The political choices presented by the three largest mainstream parties are not exactly inspiring. The choice seems to lie between two allegedly corrupt opposition parties and one ruling party accused of being a tool of the establishment. Progressive voices may wish for a different palette, but this will remain wishful thinking unless the Left can pose a credible alternative. For such an alternative, it is important to imbibe the lesson that in societies like Pakistan, the big victories are likely to come from the struggle for a genuine democracy, relatively small ones from the struggle for a progressive state and society, at least for the foreseeable future. Defeatism and apathy must be fought with in-depth analysis of the world and Pakistan's place in it in the 21st century if the forces of real progressive change are to be mobilised. The owl of Minerva awaits the fulfilment of this onerous task and responsibility.
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