Brazil's 2019 coffee crop is seen at between 50.48 million bags and 54.48 million bags, compared to 61.65 million bags produced in 2018, as the off-year in arabica's production cycle cuts overall output, the government agency Conab said on Thursday. Silvio Farnese, a supply director at Brazil's Agriculture Ministry, said the smaller crop could support prices, particularly for arabica futures in New York, since the cut in production for that variety is sizeable.
"There is a positive sign there. It could improve returns for farmers and allow them to maintain levels of crop care going forward," he told reporters at a press conference to present the Conab projections. The forecast by Conab, the first for the new crop, is lower than other estimates by independent analysts. On Monday, exporter Comexim projected a total crop in 2019 of 58.2 million bags.
Still, Conab's medium point at 52.48 million bags will be a record for an off-year in Brazil, and a larger crop than any on-year, except for 2018's super crop of almost 62 million bags, seen as a major factor for global coffee prices dropping to their lowest in 12 years. Coffee producers around the world have been saying that current prices are not profitable, which could lead to smaller cultivated areas.
Conab said planted area is expected to remain stable in the world's largest producer and exporter, but it sees continuing gains in productivity at farms. Robusta coffee production is expected to grow differently to arabica output, since the regions producing that type of coffee in Brazil had favorable weather in recent months. Conab sees robusta production at 14.36-16.33 million bags versus 14.17 million bags in 2018.
Arabica output is seen at 36.12-38.16 million bags versus 47.48 million bags in 2018.