Oil prices will struggle to gain much upward traction this year, as concern about the global economy and growth in US crude supply could offset a boost from OPEC production cuts and sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, a Reuters poll showed. "The 'low for longer' view is deferred but not repealed," Julius Baer analyst Carsten Menke said.
The survey of 39 economists and analysts forecast Brent crude oil futures to average $67.32 a barrel in 2019, down from the $69.13 projected in the previous monthly poll.
This is the third consecutive month in which analysts have cut their oil price forecasts.
"Oil demand will underperform long-run averages in 2019 as major consuming economies face a slowdown and serious downside risks, not least of which is the US-China trade dispute," Edward Bell of Emirates NBD bank said.
The price of Brent marked its first annual decline in three years in 2018 and has averaged about $60 a barrel so far this year, under pressure mainly from concerns about a global economic slowdown, exacerbated by the trade war between the United States and China, and booming US output.
Potential supply losses from Iran and Venezuela due to US sanctions, coupled with production cuts led by OPEC and Russia, have helped prices recover by about 24 percent since touching their lowest in nearly 18 months on Dec. 26.
An OPEC-led group of leading producers meets on April 17-18 in Vienna to review their supply cuts, which were agreed in December in an effort to drain global stockpiles.
Global oil demand is seen growing by between 1.1 and 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2019, mostly in line with the International Energy Agency's 1.4 million bpd forecast, but it will largely depend on the economy, analysts said.
The Reuters poll forecast US light crude would average $59.43 per barrel in 2019, versus $61.05 projected in the previous poll.