US dry natural gas production will rise to an all-time high of 90.16 billion cubic feet per day in 2019 from a record high of 83.26 bcfd in 2018, according to the Energy Information Administration's Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) on Tuesday.
The latest February output projection for 2019 was down slightly from EIA's 90.19-bcfd forecast in January. EIA also projected US gas consumption would rise to an all-time high of 82.53 bcfd in 2019 from a record high 81.68 bcfd in 2018. The 2019 demand projection in the February STEO report was down slightly from EIA's 82.65-bcfd forecast for the year in its January report.
In 2020, EIA projected output would rise to 92.05 bcfd and demand would rise to 83.56 bcfd. The agency forecast US net gas exports would reach 5.8 bcfd in 2019 and 8.2 bcfd in 2020, up from 2.0 bcfd in 2018. The United States became a net exporter of gas for the first time in 60 years in 2017.
EIA projected gas would remain the primary US power plant fuel for electrical generation in 2019 and 2020 after first supplanting coal in 2016. EIA projected the share of gas generation would rise to 36 percent in 2019 and 37 percent in 2020 from 35 percent in 2018. Coal's share of generation was forecast to slide to 26 percent in 2019 and 24 percent in 2020 from 28 percent in 2018.
EIA projected the electric power sector would burn 583.4 million short tons of coal in 2019, the lowest since 1980, and 546.9 million short tons in 2020, the lowest since 1979. That compares with 637.5 million short tons in 2018, which was the lowest since 1983. US carbon emissions have mostly declined since peaking at 6,002 million tonnes in 2007 as the power sector burns less coal, falling to a 25-year low of 5,131 million tonnes in 2017.
But in 2018, US energy-related carbon emissions rose for the first year in four to 5,274 million tonnes due to a booming economy and higher gas consumption during a colder winter and warmer summer than in 2017. EIA projected carbon emissions would slip to 5,208 million tonnes in 2019 and 5,182 million tonnes in 2020, due to forecasts for near-normal weather and moderating economic growth.