Aussie, kiwi mark time for Fed

20 Mar, 2019

The Australian and New Zealand dollars marked time on Tuesday as investors counted down to what is expected to be an accommodative US policy meeting, while domestic events added to the chance of stimulus at home. The Aussie dollar was steady at $0.7102, having touched a two-week top of $0.7120 on Monday only to run into stiff resistance. Immediate support is found at $0.7090/7100.
The kiwi dollar was steady at $0.6853 and corralled between support at $0.6809 and resistance around $0.6874.
Their US cousin has been pressured by speculation the Federal Reserve will end its policy meeting on Wednesday by abandoning forecasts for rate hikes this year.
Yet markets are also aggressively wagering on rate cuts in both Australia and New Zealand that will make it hard for the Aussie and kiwi to sustain a major bounce.
Australian government bond futures extended their recent gains to reach heights last visited in late 2016. The three-year bond contract added 4 ticks to 98.545, while the 10-year contract firmed 3.5 ticks to 98.0500.
Yields on New Zealand government bonds fell 2 to 3 basis points to be near the lowest on record. Minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) March policy meeting out on Tuesday showed the outlook for policy was evenly balanced with the impact of sliding house prices a major source of uncertainty.
Figures on Tuesday showed home prices fell 2.4 percent in the December quarter, wiping A$133 billion off values.
The futures market is almost fully priced for a quarter point cut in the 1.5 percent cash rate by August.

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