"All economists are liars, and all I say is the truth", an Economist. So is he lying or speaking the truth?
Recently while cleaning out my drawers, again came across the famous Achilles and Tortoise paradox, which set the grey matter churning in another amusing direction, perhaps Pakistan's economy was the catalyst for this particular paradox. Obviously, for that to be true, we will need to consider the time travel paradoxes commonly used in science fiction movies such as Back to the future and the television series Doctor Who; after all, Achilles and Tortoise paradox was dreamt up by the Greek philosopher Zeno of Elea way back in the 5th century, much before Pakistan gained independence. Nonetheless, that is a hurdle easily managed, since paradoxes reside in a philosophical world where there, perhaps, are only right questions but no right answers; something like economics which has perfect theories for a mythical world but no prescriptions for the real world!
Before moving on, a quick memory recall on what a paradox is, courtesy Google dictionary; a statement or proposition which, despite sound (or apparently sound) reasoning from acceptable premises, leads to a conclusion that seems logically unacceptable or self-contradictory. And for the record I have dabbled upon paradoxes before in my articles, albeit for making fun of democracy!
Anyway, Achilles challenges the Tortoise to a footrace and gives him a head start of a mile. Obviously, Achilles runs much faster than the tortoise, but when he reaches the mile mark, the tortoise has moved another 50 meters. And when Achilles runs those 50 meters, the tortoise has gone on ahead by about 5 meters, and when Achilles, now tired, runs those 5 meters the tortoise has gone 0.5 meters ahead and so on so forth with the process continuing again and again with the tortoise always moving a smaller distance away when Achilles catches up, such that the former never really catches up; apparently the only solution for this paradox is that Achilles kills the tortoise!
Every time a new government comes in, the nation is told that the economy is in a mess and that we are faced with humongous challenges. The narrative thereafter, supported by selected data and economic indicators is that the economy has been turned around. Except five years later, once again, when a fresh government settles down in the driving seat, the "Tortoise" has moved further ahead and the economy faces insurmountable challenges. The paradox is, will we ever catch up? And you cannot kill the economy in this case!
Another amusing paradox which in a turnaround manner is similar to our economy has to do with time travel. A time traveller buys a copy of Hamlet and travels back in time to hand it over to Shakespeare who diligently copies it and sells it as his own work. Over the centuries, a copy of Hamlet ends up in the very store where our time traveller originally bought it and took it back to the Bard. So who actually wrote Hamlet?
In the case of our economy, it is back to the future in a topsy-turvy manner. If every government is right that they diligently brought the economy out of a mess, who is actually responsible for the economic crisis we find ourselves in today? Apparently, a paradox for which seemingly there is no right answer.
What is better than GDP growing at 8% for a country's economy? In today's world, apparently, nothing! But a chicken is better than nothing. Hence chickens are better than an economy growing at 8%.
And then there is the card paradox. On one side of a postcard is written, "The statement on the other side of this card is true"; the opposite side reads, "The statement on the other side of this card is false". Something like the GDP paradox, get GDP right and all else will follow; except on the flip side, all else is what makes up the GDP!
Perhaps the Raven paradox is the most challenging for Pakistan's economy; all ravens are black therefore everything that is not black is not a raven. In our context, this paradox is rephrased as - property rights are central for capitalism therefore without property rights the economy is not a capitalist economy. By any stretch of imagination, property rights is an alien concept in Pakistan, what with the land grabbing mafia and land disputes in courts for decades. Essentially without legally protected property rights, which also are a significant component of a critical factor of production, substantive economic growth will remain a moving target, like the tortoise. The fact that economic debate in the country, including that fostered by economists on celebrity talk shows, revolves around everything else but property rights, in itself is curious. How much would it costs to have additional courts to ensure a judicial system where property disputes are resolved in not more than two years?
Dear readers, hope you enjoyed today's discussion on paradoxes, just for fun!
(The writer is a chartered accountant based in Islamabad. Email: syed.bakhtiyarkazmi@gmail.com)