As if the Arab World is at the threshold of its second Arab Spring - after Algeria it is now buffeting the Republic of the Sudan. Strongman Omar al-Bashir, who ruled his poverty-ridden country for 30 years with an iron hand, was ousted this past Thursday, following month-long protests that started as protest against food prices and developed into a call on the country's military to throw him out. To that extent the anti-Omar al-Bashir protestors have succeeded. The defence minister, Awad Mohammad Ahmed Ibn Auf, announced removal of his erstwhile boss, but stopped short of meeting the protestors' demand for democratic rule in Sudan. Instead, he appointed a military council which announced a two-year period of military rule to be followed by elections. The protestors welcomed removal of Bashir but did not call off their protests. They do not want one military setup replaced by another of the same genre - an apprehension embedded in unenviable aftermath of the first Arab Spring. The protestors not only instantly rejected Ibn Auf's declaration but also decided to challenge the night-curfew and to "stay put and guard your revolution...to comply with the curfew is to recognise the clone government." The Sudanese know how to bring down a military dictator through a largely non-violent uprising - Gaafar Nimeiry too was their prize. Because of his doublespeak on the part of Ibn Auf it is uncertain if the ouster of Bashir is an honest move in response to the public demand, or the military council is a Trojan horse loaded with a future military dictator.
But, even if the follow-up of coup in Sudan remains unpredictable, given the turmoil now besetting many Arab countries, possibility of second spell of Arab Spring cannot be ruled out. Eight years on, the political repression, authoritarian regimes, failed economies and grinding poverty, the beneficiaries of first Arab Spring had committed to address remain pervasive. Last month, the Algerian strongman and long-time ruler Abdelaziz Bouteflika was ousted by a mass movement. Yemen too is ripe for a change, and so are Libya and Syria. The first Arab Spring brought down Hosni Mubarak, Muammar Qadhafi and Ali Abdullah Saleh. But what happened then? In Egypt it was General Sisi who didn't take long to take over. Libya is in a deep mess. The Yemen conflict is still far from over. The future of Syria and whole region hangs in the balance even after Assad's victory over 'rebels'.
Historically, every era has its own peculiarities. While the governments can militarily defend their national borders they cannot 'protect' their peoples against invasion of universally prompted and promoted sets of hopes and aspirations. In Sudan it was professionals and the youth that led the protests. They remained peaceful but determined to open up their country as a land which respects human rights and democratic politics. The protestors' "Alliance for Freedom and Change" argued that the regime had "conducted a military coup by bringing back the same faces and institutions which our people rose against". And the release of detainees announced by the National Intelligence was seen as deception. The Sudanese youth, particularly the students, remained in the forefront of the anti- regime protests. Among them the one who stole the light is 20-year-old Alaa Saleh, and now an icon of the protest movement. Widely described as 'Kandaka,' or Nubian queen, she would challenge the regime by saying that "your bullet doesn't kill. What kills is the silence of people". Her tweet calling for a civilian council to head the transition is now the clarion call of protestors all over the world. As for the Sudan the second Arab Spring has just arrived. The question whether this 'spring' will also blossom has no easy answer. If anyone thinks Omar al-Bashir's ouster is his country's internal matter and therefore not an international issue, he should think twice - Bashir is on the wanted list of the International Court of Justice on charges of genocide and war crimes.