How low can you go? When below the belt becomes almost literal, it hurts. Not just physically but intellectually, psychologically, emotionally and morally. The last few weeks have seen a drama unfold whose script, though poor and unsubstantive, is still being written. Narendra Modi and his armed forces, want to prove the unproven-that they did avenge the Pulwama by strikes, whether on Balakot or on F16. The spate of lies has been contested not just by Pakistan but by the international media, technical labs and strategic analysts. This has put India in a rather uncomfortable defensive mode - a mode that is unusual as historically what they say matters more than what the facts are.
As episode number one of the Balakot strike petered into an Indian and mostly Modi loss of face, episode two has already been prepared. With elections starting it seems a foolhardy choice but may be the elections are signaling a result that does not suit the Modi government. It is a fact that in the thick smog of make believe existing in the Indian media that has layers of manufactured news, some foreign media analysis penetrated through and raised questions on the credibility of the Indian claims. This "dare to disagree" with the Indian claims was enough for warring minds to think of a re- attempt.
Indian rise on the global stage has been dramatic in the last two decades. With the second biggest population in the world, its middle class is bigger than many countries in the world. Their prowess in academia, information technology and research has made them penetrate the corporate and intellectual world of the west. Their image of being a secular country emulating many western values has earned them seats of acceptance in the global civil society. Their coziness with Israel has won them seats of power with American lobbies. This has created a political smugness in them where they have taken advantage of Pakistan's socio political upheavals in the last 2 decades to get away with most accusations specially on the terror front. Pakistan has protested on how the war on terror cost them human lives, their economy and their image in the international world but nobody paid heed. For many years India has exploited this dismissive global attitude towards Pakistan to its advantage. When so much goes your way for so long, you do not doubt your own spin.
The latest ongoing war threat between India and Pakistan is based on India's assumption of its ability to get away with stories that may be far from reality. Modi's government smacks of discrimination and oppression. In their political arrogance, they are aghast at why their spin is not spinning any longer. The previous history of Pakistan made them confident that with their penetration in the international lobbies, their screaming media combined with their electoral fervor will rule out any other possibility but the narrative that "Pakistan's terrorist activities in Kashmir have been punished with impunity". While they were celebrating this narrative and expecting a deafening silence from Pakistan something else happened. The spin that they were weaving had the wrong pattern.
Pakistan decided to do a pre-emptive political/diplomatic strike. India was expecting a passive or aggressive resistance as per Pakistan tradition. However what Pakistan did took them unawares. Pakistan decided to put "sense" in them not by counter warmongering but talking about the senselessness of indulging into a nuclear war and instead offered peace and dialogue. This coupled with a staunch but restraint military reply followed by the release of the captured Indian pilot made India clueless. As they shouted for more blood, technology and digital media evidence started de-threading their spin weave. International strategic institutes all around the world through advanced technology shred into pieces their claims of 600 and then 300 people being shot down and F16 being blasted away. New York Times states "the photograph of dead bodies wrapped in white, supposedly of Pakistani militants killed in attack, actually depicted victims of a 2015 heat wave". Washington Post, Wall Street Journal, Guardian all had similar analyses making Indian claims look fake and hollow.
Sense and wisdom would urge that after such a dressing down a different strategy would be adopted. However sense requires the pre-requisite of humility and understanding. These traits are not very visible in the Modi arrogance and aggression. That is why a repeat of the same was and is expected. The latest intelligence reports reveal that in a National Security meeting led by Modi a decision was made to try another strike in mid-April. This was revealed by the Foreign Minister of Pakistan at a press conference. If it was incorrect then typically an immediate rebuttal and counter allegation spate should have ensued from Indian Foreign office. The complete silence indicates that the intelligence is correct. This indicates the persistence with the strategy of belligerence despite an earlier failure.
Why persist with this strategy? Three main reasons. Firstly, the pressure on Modi of the doubts on his first surgical strike results. Secondly, when it is more a matter of ego than logic, strategies are not made with reasoning but with temperament. Thirdly, even if Modi lost narrative in the international media, his local media and public have backed and believed his spin. Why is he persisting on this theme is because according to most analysts for the first time in Indian elections national security is a higher voter choice point than jobs and farmer issues. This is visible by the "Chowkidar" campaign theme of BJP contestants led by Modi and Sushma Swaraj displayed on their twitter handles. Thus for BJP to win elections Modi has to come out as a decisive strong leader who takes action on security issues rather than relies on rhetoric. Additionally, the strong clampdown on Kashmir with promise of change of laws also appeals to the Hindutva voter base.
As Foreign Policy magazine confirms that India did not shoot F16 of Pakistan down as the count conducted by the US investigators showed full inventory, and as Indian polls show Modi winning by a smaller margin than in the last elections, the plan to repeat the aggression is brewed. However the very fact that a repeat plan is being made, and that claim by Pakistan has not been denied, is itself proof of failure. To seek the truth, a couple of questions are enough: If the surgical strikes on Balakot were so successful that 300 people were killed along with an F16 downing, why is India planning another strike? And if another strike is not being planned to compensate for the earlier failure why have they not denied Pakistani Foreign Minister's statement? As they say "the answer lies in the questions themselves".
(The writer can be reached at andleeb.abbas1@gmail.com)