Brazilian soyabean exports are expected to end April at the lowest level for that month in four years, based on government figures for the first few days of the month, ship lineup data going forward and industry source estimates. According to Williams' shipping schedules from April 10 to April 29 released on Tuesday, Brazil will export about 5.8 million tonnes of soyabeans in this period. That, in addition to the 3 million tonnes the government said Brazil had exported through April 5, would lift the total for the month to around 8.8 million tonnes.
While Brazilian exports usually pick up in April, when the harvesting of soyabeans is almost complete, in 2019 a smaller crop and competition from ample US soyabean stocks are hampering the flow from the world's largest exporter of the oilseed, the data showed.
For commodities trader AgriBrasil, exports could still reach around 9.5 million tonnes in April despite what shipping line up data is showing now.
Grain exporters association Anec, on the other hand, has a more conservative soyabean export forecast for the month, after estimating Brazil's foreign sales 900,000 tonnes lower than the government in the first days of April.
Anec projects exports of 6.9 million tonnes for the whole of April, after farmers exported 2.1 million tonnes of soyabeans in the first week. This would be lowest since the 6.5 million tonnes registered in April 2015 and way below last year's 10.26 million tonnes.
The outlook illustrates how the trade war between the United States and China is affecting global trade flows. After US soyabean exports got caught up in the dispute, US silos are still full of soyabeans from last year, which has weighed on Brazil's sales.
Agribusiness consultancy Céleres said strong soyabean exports in the first week of April could be linked to currency movements favouring exporters and importers' anticipating purchases as Brazil is poised to collect a smaller crop.
Anec said the discrepancy between government figures and its own owes to a difference in methodologies. The association relies on daily shipping line-ups sent by multiple maritime agencies, which it says best reflects actual exported volumes. The government's foreign trade secretariat (Secex) did not reply to a comment request.