The best wars are those that are not wars but destroy the enemy. In today's world of information highways, conventional industries and strategies are on their way out. Competition has become intense and cut throat. Every industry is facing digital disruption. Competitors are wary of every innovation being copied in no time. Sustainable competitive advantage is elusive and difficult. Many industries are thus trying to discover more subtle and inimitable competitive strategies that are difficult to copy and defeat. Countries are also facing the same dilemma. The traditional strategies of gaining power are no longer effective and are drawing a lot of criticism around the world.
The colonialism and imperialism strategy of direct occupation became difficult after the two World Wars. There was a general consensus in the world to ensure that a third world war does not happen. This gave rise to the Cold War between the then Soviet Union and the USA. However third country wars or sponsoring wars in other countries became the strategy. War ensued between Iran and Iraq backed by big powers to gain superpower status. This was followed by wars on Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria. The results of these wars have been a lose-lose for all sides. Each war ended up killing millions and wasting billions. Thus, the direct conventional war strategies have become a sign of failure and atrocities.
That is why in today's world the hybrid warfare has become the new norm. According to the formal definition, hybrid warfare is political cum military strategy that blends conventional warfare, irregular warfare and cyberwarfare with other influencing methods, such as fake news diplomacy, law fare and foreign electoral intervention. By combining overt operations with subversive efforts, the aggressor intends to remain invisible or cannot be directly held responsible for the damage to another country. This hybrid of aggressive and back handed fifth dimension provocations objectives of defeat can become more effective and less attributable to the sponsor.
The major techniques of hybrid wars are sponsoring violence and unrest in countries that they want to de-stabilize. The use of non-state actors to defeat state actors is not novel but more sophisticated in its approach. Consider the case of Taliban in Pakistan. It is now open knowledge that many Taliban factions were funded by India and by Afghanistan. Many blasts that have happened in Pakistan have been traced back to these two countries. This hybrid warfare technique is more lethal than military offensives. Military offensives have a limited time and scope as they are visible, counter attacked and face legal and socio political consequences. The military offensive will do a certain damage but the hybrid war of terrorism in Pakistan has done more damage than any military offensive. It cost Pakistan approximately $125 billion and almost 70000 lives.
US and Russia can no longer embroil in direct wars but assert their power by supporting wars for and against certain countries. Syrian civil war had many states and non-state actors like ISIS etc to fight a war for supremacy of the two powers. These wars become so complicated that sub agents of the non-state also develop making it very difficult to trace the real culprits. They first facilitate insurgency, then they carry out operations of counter insurgency, and conduct war in the name of peace. Once the war destroys the country's infrastructure their own multinationals step in to rebuild the country. The then American Vice President Dick Cheney's company Haliburton won big contracts for rebuilding Iraq after the American war had destroyed Iraq.
What these provocations do is that it disturbs the socio emotional balance of the people living in that country creating a genuine reaction to these forced operations. This reaction is then capitalized by political parties, religious segments and proxy operators to their advantage to build up a genuine case of unrest, violence and extremism. The sophistication of hybrid warfare has now reached unprecedented levels as social media has become a platform to invade and influence brains, perception and opinions. To create mental unrest or response such effective fake news is presented that it becomes the real reality.
Hybrid wars through false news is strategic coercion strategy planned very carefully. A false story or a forgery is planted in a newspaper or other media outlet, preferably one with the appearance of editorial independence. State-affiliated media sources pick up the story, often running multiple articles and commentary in order to draw attention to it. The story spreads through global media forums with similar ideological agendas or lax editorial policies. The "fake news" becomes persistently rooted in public debate, frequently reappearing despite apparently expert efforts to discredit it. In 2003, they splashed the allegations by George W Bush that Iraq possessed weapons of mass destruction. Then they copied the lies of Tony Blair, according to which Iraq possessed missile launchers capable of reaching the West in 45 minutes and killing the population by spraying combat gases. The United Nations Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC) stated that there was no doubt that the allegations of Messrs Bush and Blair were false.
Imagine the destruction of a country through a war that destroyed infrastructure and killed over a million people and is still on as a form of terror groups that have emerged due to this oppression. Tony Blair has confessed to being wrong but is still circuiting the world giving guest lectures on political strategies and earning millions. The recent fake news bazaar unleashed by India post Pulwama where they have convinced themselves that Pulwama was orchestrated by Pakistan and that their forces had to attack Pakistan and kill 300 'militants', has fortunately not turned into a full-scale war due to the political wisdom and some deft diplomacy of Pakistan's leadership. Law fare is another hybrid strategy. Law fare is the use or abuse of laws to achieve the objectives of controlling the enemy. Many international laws are exploited by superpowers to their advantage. American usage of sanctions against Iran is a typical example of trying to control Iranian nuclear capability.
As Sun Tzu said "the supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting". Hybrid wars are a further hybrid of Sun Tzu strategies where the supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy by making someone else fight your war. However most direct or indirect wars are self-defeating in the long run. The American desperation to exit Afghanistan after seventeen years of losses on all fronts is a proof to the statement. Sun Tzu, who was a war strategist, also admits: "There is no evidence of a nation benefitting from a prolonged war".
(The writer is a columnist, consultant, coach, and an analyst and can be reached at andleeb.abbas1@gmail.com. She tweets at @AndleebAbbas)