Casting an eye over the current national landscape proves an unsettling experience. Good news is hard to find, if not conspicuous by its absence. Nevertheless, for the sake of clarity and hopefully some benefit for the readers, here goes.
The May 6, 2019 lead headline in most newspapers was about the telephonic conversation between Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and Prime Minister Imran Khan. The call from Kabul came four days after the attack from Afghanistan by 60-70 terrorists on Pakistani troops erecting a fence on the border in the Alwara area of North Waziristan. Four troops were martyred in the attack, with the Pakistan military's response reportedly accounting for scores of the attackers, although this claim could not be verified since the attackers retreated to their bases across the border. This latest attack once again underlines the fact that Pakistan has 'exported' its domestic terrorist problem to Afghan territory after its counter-insurgency campaigns in erstwhile FATA forced the militants to retreat over the border. They have been able to find secure bases there, partly, it is said, with the help of the Haqqani Network that has a dominant presence in eastern Afghanistan close to our border. Since Kabul has little or no control over the area (even the US has retreated westwards from this location after losing many personnel in attacks by the Haqqani Network and Afghan Taliban), it is futile, as Imran Khan did on the telephone, to ask Ashraf Ghani for help in ensuring such cross-border attacks are stopped. After years of supporting proxies across its western and eastern borders, Pakistan is unfortunately now being doled out its own medicine by the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) from Afghan soil.
The two leaders also exchanged views on the rosy future of benefitting from their geographic location, enhanced regional connectivity and the realisation of their true economic potential for socio-economic development, poverty alleviation and people's welfare. All this sounds good, but the elephant in the room, without which none of this is imaginable, is the restoration of peace in Afghanistan. That goal still seems as elusive as ever. The talks in Doha between the Afghan Taliban and Zalmay Khalilzad are still stuck on two points of general agreement, with the devil in the detail, as well as yet-to-begin talks about the future of Afghanistan per se. The two points on which the US and the Taliban have converged are the withdrawal of all foreign forces, although the timeframe is still in contention, with the latter demanding a deadline of six months and the former holding out for at least 18 months, and the Taliban commitment to never allow Afghan soil to be used to attack the US or its allies a la 9/11. It is also not clear whether Washington wishes to retain an intelligence presence in Afghanistan with a regional outreach or what quantitative and qualitative parameters it would like that presence to have. Last but not least, and by no means a small impediment, the fate of the Afghan government, particularly Ashraf Ghani, and the shape and hue of the political order to follow, based perhaps on some formula of power sharing with the Taliban. As can be seen above, there is still many a slip between the cup and the lip. It is highly unlikely the Taliban, having fought the US to a strategic stalemate if not reversal of momentum on the battlefield, would give up their aspiration to once again become sole arbiters of Afghanistan's destiny. That presages a fresh civil war, since there is a considerable body of Afghan political and social forces ready to resist a return to the Draconian Taliban rule, the latter's attempts to assure it will be different this time round notwithstanding.
While the Afghanistan conundrum persists, Pakistan's economy continues to appear up the creek without a paddle, not the least because of the patent failure of the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf (PTI) government to handle it well. Recession has set in, with closure of businesses being accelerated by the unwanted attentions and raids of the taxman. Unemployment is rising as a result. Inflation is causing extreme hardship among citizens, with prices of food and other essentials rising almost on a daily basis. This is bound to enhance hunger and malnutrition, from which millions of our children suffer and leads to stunting, as recent reports on the subject have revealed. Prices of electricity and gas are reportedly set to rise again, and the recent increase in petrol, etc, prices on the justification that international oil prices have gone up masks the increase in taxes on petroleum products that the government has 'sneaked' in under this cover.
After the Asad Umar experience, it appears the International Financial Institutions (IFIs), especially the IMF, are in with a vengeance. Hafeez Sheikh and the new State Bank Governor Dr Reza Baqir, lately of the IMF, portend that the government has buckled under to the IMF's demands for having its 'own' people in charge. This is now an indicator of the shape of things to come. For perhaps a $ 6 plus billion IMF facility, Pakistan will receive a heavy dose of the same 1980s standard prescription of the IMF that has a failed track record round the world: demand 'management' (read demand suppression), austerity (reducing government spending, with the axe likely to fall heaviest on development expenditure), and stabilisation (anti-growth). This 22nd programme of the IMF is not likely to yield results very different from the first 21 programmes, i.e., more harm than good.
What too many of our economists fail to see or discuss is the model of development we have been pursuing more or less consistently over the last seven decades. An inefficient tax collection system, huge informal sector, fiscal deficits combined with balance of payments deficits, none of which has been cured by the IMF nostrums, impels us into the debt trap the country is in. This implies taking more debt to service outstanding debt liabilities. This is only feasible if we enjoy the goodwill of the west led by the US, since they control the international purse strings. That goodwill is only available if we cooperate and collaborate with the global powers in their strategic objectives worldwide and regionally. If we deviate from these (as is visible today vis-à-vis Afghanistan, Kashmir, and even to some extent Iran), the consequences are that Pakistan is left high and dry. Dole outs, aid and loans from friendly countries, though helpful, are no substitute for the IMF imprimatur that opens the door to other IFIs' cooperation.
The success stories of developing countries that have broken this cycle of debt dependence are those who have attached their economies to the global supply chain networks of the relatively few multinational corporations that have offshored manufacturing and production to chosen developing countries (China, India, East and Southeast Asia, etc) and control the global economy through their worldwide marketing networks, with finance and profits centralised in their headquarters in the developed world. In this brave new world, countries like Pakistan, immersed in their regional proxy war games, have missed the bus. It is still not too late to redress this failure by developing global supply chain manufacturing and production facilities here. One outstanding benefit of this development would be our 'liberation' from the donor-driven agendas that have brought us to our (economic) knees by now. Is the government (or anyone) listening?
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