THE RUPEE: modest recovery

08 Jul, 2019

The rupee managed to recover some lost ground against the dollar on the back of easy supply of the greenback during the week, ended on July 6, 2019. The rupee managed to gain versus the dollar for buying and selling at Rs 156.80 and Rs 157.00.
INTER-BANK MARKET RATES: OPEN MARKET RATES: The rupee gained modestly against the dollar for buying and selling at Rs 156.00 and Rs 157.00, they said. The rupee was available in relation to the euro for buying and selling at Rs 175.50 and Rs 178.00.
Marketmen said that some positive developments on the economic front, helped the rupee to recover lost ground. In the meantime, at the closing sessions of the week, the rupee showed slight weakness in terms of the dollar, they noted. Currency viewers were keenly watching the direction of the rupee versus the dollar after the approval of International Monetary Fund (IMF) loan.
INTER-BANK MARKET RATES: On 1st June, the banks were closed. On June 2, the rupee gained 1.75 against the dollar for buying and selling at Rs 158.00 and Rs 158.25.
On June 3, the rupee gained 40 paisa versus the dollar for buying and selling at Rs 157.60 and Rs 157.80. On June 4, the rupee jumped versus the dollar for buying and selling at Rs 156.40 and Rs 156.50. On June 5, the rupee lost 40 paisas versus the dollar for buying and selling at Rs 156.80 and Rs 157.00.
OPEN MARKET RATES: On Monday, the rupee managed to hold overnight levels in terms of the dollar for buying and selling at Rs 156.50 and Rs 157.50. The rupee rose by 50 paisas in relation to the euro for buying and selling at Rs 176.50 and Rs 180.00.
On Tuesday, the rupee picked up 50 paisas in terms of the dollar for buying at Rs 159.00 and it also picked Re one for selling at Rs 160.00. The rupee gained Re one in relation to the euro for buying and selling at Rs 178.00 and Rs 182.00. On Wednesday, the rupee also gained Rs 2.50 in terms of the dollar for buying and selling at Rs 156.50 and Rs 157.50. The rupee followed the same patter in relation to the euro for buying and selling at Rs 177.00 and Rs 179.50. On Thursday, the rupee picked up 50 paisas for buying and selling at Rs 156.00 and Rs 157.00. The rupee gained sharply in relation to the euro for buying and selling at Rs 174.50 and Rs 178.00. On Friday, the rupee did not show any change against the dollar for buying and selling at Rs 156.00 and Rs 157.00. The rupee shed Re one in relation to the euro for buying and selling at Rs 175.50 and Rs 179.00.
On Saturday, the rupee held the overnight levels against the dollar for the second day in a row, showing no change for buying and selling at Rs 156.00 and Rs 157.00. The rupee was trading in relation to the euro for buying and selling at Rs 175.50 and Rs 178.00.
OVERSEAS OUTLOOK FOR DOLLAR: In the first Asian trade, the dollar gained 0.5% against the yen on Monday after the United States and China agreed on Saturday to restart trade talks as US President Donald Trump offered concessions on new tariffs and restrictions on tech company Huawei.
The dollar rose to 108.48 yen, extending its recovery from the near six-month low of 106.78 set last Tuesday while it also rose 0.3% against the Swiss franc, another safe haven currency, to 0.97935 franc. The dollar was trading against the Indian rupee at Rs 68.903, the greenback was at 4.133 versus the Malaysian ringgit and the US currency was at 6.839 in terms of the Chinese yuan.
In the second Asian trade, the dollar gave up gains on Tuesday as investors curbed earlier enthusiasm about US-China trade progress while the Australian currency barely budged from recent lows after a central bank rate cut decision offered few clues about future easing. The yuan also shed its early rise to trade lower on the day after US President Donald Trump said any deal with China would need to be somewhat tilted in favour of the United States, suggesting negotiations may not proceed smoothly.
The US dollar index against a basket of six major currencies earlier rose to its highest in a week but retreated as doubt set in about the resumption of US-China efforts to resolve their trade war. Market focus now shifts to Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe, who speaks to business leaders in the northern Australian city of Darwin at 0930 GMT, which could provide clues on how much further interest rates could fall.
The dollar was trading against the Indian rupee at Rs 68.995, the US currency was at 4.140 in terms of the Malaysian ringgit and the greenback was available at 6.862 in relation to the Chinese yuan. In the third Asian trade, the dollar struggled on Wednesday, having been nudged off two-week highs as fading optimism over any near-term Sino-US trade deal revived safe-haven demand and drove US yields down.
US bond yields also tracked a decline in their British counterparts to 2-1/2-year lows on dovish-sounding comments from Bank of England Governor Mark Carney, which in turn weighed on the pound. The dollar index against a basket of six major currencies stood at 96.742 after pulling back from 96.875 scaled on Tuesday, its highest since June 20. The pound was steady at $1.2597 after shedding 0.35% the previous day, when it touched a two-week trough of $1.2584.
The dollar was available against the Indian rupee at Rs 68.868, the US currency was at 4.139 versus the Malaysian ringgit and greenback was at 6.885 in terms of the Chinese yuan.
In the fourth Asian trade, the dollar was on the back foot on Thursday, trading near a one-week low versus the yen as falling Treasury yields fuelled expectations the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this month for the first time in a decade. The dollar was little changed at 107.75 yen on Thursday, after touching a one-week low of 107.54 yen on Wednesday.
The greenback has fallen 3.5% versus the yen in the past three months amid growing signs the Fed will cut rates at its July 30-31 meeting. Benchmark 10-year US yields touched 1.939%, the lowest since November 2016, before recovering slightly. Lower yields reduce the appeal of holding the dollar. The dollar index against a basket of six major currencies was slightly lower at 96.712.
The dollar was available versus the Indian rupee at Rs 68.865, the greenback was at 4.131 against the Malaysian ringgit and the US currency was at 6.871 in relation to the Chinese yuan. In the final Asian trade, the dollar was steady on Friday as traders held off on making big bets ahead of the closely-watched US non-farm jobs report that could influence the course of near-term Federal Reserve policy.
The dollar index against a basket of six major currencies stood little changed 96.754, having spent the previous day in a tight range as the US financial markets were closed for the Independence Day holiday. The index had fallen to a three-month trough of 95.843 last week as US Treasury yield slumped to 2-1/2-year lows on expectations the Fed would cut interest rates this year, starting as early as this month.
The euro was steady at $1.1283 and headed for a weekly loss of 0.75%. A drop in euro zone government bond yields to record lows this week, in sympathy with the global debt rally, has weighed on the single currency.
The dollar was available against the Indian rupee at Rs 68.680, the greenback was at 4.134 versus the Malaysian ringgit and the US currency was trading against the Chinese yuan at 6.877. In the final US trade, US dollar gained against a basket of currencies to its highest levels in 2-1/2 weeks on Friday after data showed that US job growth rebounded strongly in June.
Non-farm payrolls increased by 224,000 jobs last month, the most in five months, and well above the 160,000 jobs forecast by economists. The strong gains came after job growth slowed sharply in May. The economy created 11,000 fewer jobs in April and May than previously reported, the government said on Friday.
The data came as many traders and investors were away, a day after the July 4 holiday and ahead of the weekend. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was last at 97.311, up 0.56%, after earlier rising to 97.443, the highest level since June 19.

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