New York cocoa seen edging up

28 Jul, 2019

New York cocoa prices are forecast to end the year marginally above current levels as the market looks set to flip into deficit in the 2019/20 season, a Reuters poll of 10 analysts and traders showed on Thursday. ICE New York cocoa was expected to end the year at $2,515 a tonne, up 2% from Wednesday's close and 4% versus the start of the year, according to the median forecast of responses. Prices ended last year up 28%.
A small global deficit of 80,000 tonnes was forecast for the 2019/20 season against a surplus of 45,000 tonnes for 2018/19. In its May update, the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) saw a surplus for 2018/19 of 36,000 tonnes. ICE London cocoa was expected to end the year at 1,882 pounds a tonne, down 0.1% from Wednesday's close but up 5% versus the start of the year. Prices ended last year up 28%.
Respondents said key factors to watch were adverse weather in West Africa and moves by top producers Ivory Coast and Ghana to impose a fixed "living income differential" of $400 a tonne on all cocoa sales contracts for 2020/21.

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