Most Asian currencies stronger on trade talks optimism, stimulus 

18 Feb, 2019

The United States and China resume talks in Washington this week after they reported progress in five days of negotiations in Beijing. US President Donald Trump has said he may extend a March 1 deadline for reaching a deal.

"The market had certainly been cheering the signs," said Jingyi Pan, a Singapore-based market strategist at trading and investments provider IG.

"Despite the lack of details post meeting, there is a growing sense that a 60-day extension to the March 1 deadline for further tariffs implementation could help to ease through the difficulty in reaching common ground on contentious issues such as intellectual property and technology transfers," he said.

The Indonesian rupiah led regional gainers on the day, followed by the South Korean won and China's yuan.

The Thai baht rose 0.2 percent after its economy grew at its best pace in six years in 2018, with the fourth-quarter beating expectations on higher domestic demand and record tourism arrivals.

Bucking the trend, the Indian rupee shed 0.27 percent on worries over India's trade deficit and higher crude oil prices.

Regional assets were also helped by expectations that major central banks will start to unwind their monetary tightening policies this year.

The sustained rise in US interest rates last year undermined Asian currencies and triggered portfolio outflows from the region.

"Over the first six weeks of 2019, US equities have seen a drawdown of $43.6 billion. During the same period, EM Asia has received $17.1 billion in equities and $3.3 billion in bond fund flows," DBS Bank said in a report.

Minutes of the Federal Reserve's last policy meeting are due on Wednesday and should provide more guidance on the likelihood of a rate hike this year.

SINGAPORE DOLLAR

The Singapore dollar rose 0.1 percent against the dollar, despite exports from the city state stumbling more than expected in January.

Singapore's non-oil domestic exports (NODX) fell 10.1 percent in January from a year earlier, data from the trade agency Enterprise Singapore showed, which was worse than a 1.6 percent decline predicted by a Reuters poll.

Last week, Singapore posted its slowest economic growth in more than two years in the fourth quarter and its trade ministry warned that manufacturing is likely to face significant moderation this year.

"The government's budget due out later today will likely need to incorporate some offsetting measures to stimulate the domestic economy in the face of mounting external weakness." ING said in a note.

INDONESIAN RUPIAH

The Indonesian rupiah rose 0.39 percent on Monday after posting its biggest weekly fall in more than two months in the last week.

Indonesia's trade deficit could deteriorate further due to a rise in crude oil prices, analysts said. The country is one Asia's biggest oil importers.

The country's trade deficit swelled in January as exports fell sharper than expected, although imports contracted for the first time in 19 months, data from the statistics bureau showed on Friday.

The following table shows rates for Asian currencies against the dollar at 0519 GMT.

Copyright Reuters, 2019

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