Price rally stalls as market ignores US economic data

25 Apr, 2019

Yields fell by four to five basis points across maturities on Wednesday as investors piled into the safe-haven government bonds following a dovish report from Canada's central bank and weak data from Germany and Australia. That rally was on pause in morning trade, with yields less than a basis point higher.

A rise in jobless claims and strong headline capital goods orders, both reported on Thursday, inspired little action in the US debt market.

"It was difficult to read a whole lot into (the economic data). Jobless claims jumped up but that was because of a supermarket-worker strike. And around the holidays, it's hard to get the seasonal adjustments right," said Mike Lorizio, senior fixed income trader at Manulife Asset Management.

"And with durable goods, the headline number was great, but the piece that directly feeds through to the GDP forecast had missed this month. So it was really net neutral this month," he said. "It really didn't have any impact." US gross domestic product for the first quarter will be reported on Friday morning.

Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft surged 1.3 percent in March, the most in eight months, the Commerce Department reported on Thursday. But a drop in shipments suggested business spending on equipment slowed in the first quarter.

Also reported on Thursday was the number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits, which last week increased by the most in 19 months. The underlying trend, however, continued to point to labor market strength.

The slight rise in yields showed the market giving back some of Wednesday's significant price gains as investor focus remained on the global economy, rather than just the data coming out of the United States.

"It started overseas and the US just followed suit," said Lorizio.

"It has been a consistent theme that we've seen. Despite US data being somewhat solid overall ... the New York session has been determined before we all get to our desks in the morning based on some price moves in other developed markets."

Later on Thursday, the US Treasury Department will auction off $32 billion of new seven-year notes. The auctions of two- and five-year notes earlier this week were met with solid demand, with indirect bidders, a proxy for foreign investors, taking the most of the five-year supply in nine months. ?Reuters

Copyright Reuters, 2019

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