Prices rise on undersupply, low wind output

10 May, 2019

* Gas for immediate delivery was up 0.75 pence at 40.00 pence per therm at 0720 GMT, while the day-ahead  was up 1.10 pence at 39.00 p/therm.

* The weekend gas contract 2.70 pence higher at 39.00 p/therm.

* Trader said the rise in prompt prices is due to lower imports from Norway, coupled with low wind output which was driving up gas-to-power demand.

* Britain's gas demand is forecast at around 247 million cubic metres (mcm) and flows at 238 mcm/day, leaving the system undersupplied by 9 mcm, National Grid data shows.

* Norwegian flows through the Langeled pipeline to Britain have fallen to 10 mcm/day, down by 30 mcm from the previous day. This is mainly due to annual maintenance at the Kollsnes gas processing plant and Troll field.

* The gas output quota for Troll has been raised to 38 billion cubic meters (bcm) for the 12 months ending on Sept. 30, from an original cap of 36 bcm, Equinor said late last week.

* This allows for 2 bcm more gas to be extracted from the field but an Equinor spokesman said the permit's revision does not necessarily mean that actual production will be increased.

* While temperatures are forecast to remain below the seasonal norm for the next 14 days, they are seen rising slightly next week, Refinitiv Eikon data shows.

* Wind output is low, forecast at around 1.6 gigawatts (GW) out of a total metered capacity of around 12 GW. It is expected to rise slightly to around 3.5 GW on Saturday, according to Elexon data.

* The June gas contract was up 0.30 pence at 34.00 p/therm.

* In the Dutch gas market, the June contract at the TTF hub  was up 0.18 euro at 14.45 euros per megawatt hour.

* Benchmark EU carbon price edged up by 0.02 euro to 26.52 euros a tonne.

Copyright Reuters, 2019

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