Is the US-Pakistan bilateral finally getting a break? Maybe yes, maybe not – just as Donald Trump likes to say. The premier is reportedly visiting DC in a couple of weeks on Trump’s invite. Given the on-again, off-again nature of the two countries’ relationship, don’t expect major breakthroughs. Since the triple fallout 2011, the ties have had an increasingly contentious security element instead of an economic one.
The trip will be hyped up in Pakistan and there is no doubt that the PM will have an opportunity to shine on the big stage. But in the US it will be sold as a low-key affair, as the mood in DC is not exactly friendly. The first step, therefore, is to generate the necessary goodwill that has been missing between the country’s leadership. That will create a positive atmosphere to make amends and do some give and take.
What both countries want from each other is too complicated to be delivered in a short time frame. What the US needs from Pakistan is all the latter’s might in finding a negotiated, phased and dignified exit from Afghanistan. For nearly a year now, both countries have been working to resurrect a dead horse. Now the wagon of peace is finally rolling, raising expectations for a grand bargain that lets everyone move on.
It would mean a lot to Trump if the US withdrawal happened on his watch. Heading for a re-election in November 2020, he could tell the Americans, see, I ended your longest war, brought the troops home, and made America great again. In helping Trump get his mileage, Pakistan has a role to play, and about a year to deliver, right before the presidential campaign hits high gear.
Pakistan, though, is working on an even shorter timeline, with an eye towards securing its regional interests in the medium term. FATF is breathing down its neck over technical matters that have been politicised by US and India at the multilateral forum. Therefore, to avoid an adverse scenario in October, it is absolutely critical for Khan to somehow bring Trump to this side, or at least seek a commitment that the hawks in the US administration will stay neutral in the Paris proceedings.
However, cold facts may get in the way of a successful summit. As the Indo-US partnership has grown in the last couple of decades, Pakistan hasn’t remained central to America’s long-term security interests in the region. America continues to view Pakistan through the Afghan lens, and the growing Sino-Pak economic ties haven’t exactly thrilled the Trump administration. Spending money can solve that problem, as the US has become increasingly transactional under Trump.
Sadly, Pakistan’s boom-bust economic cycles have kept it from becoming an economic powerhouse. There is limited power to purchase Lockheed weapons, Boeing aircrafts and New York real estate. That is something other countries have done to curry favour with Trump. Yes, Pakistan runs a trade surplus with the US, it has many US MNCs working here and Pakistani-Americans send valuable remittances home. But those numbers are insignificant for US to suddenly start prioritizing Pakistan over India.
There is some likelihood that Trump and Khan will hit it off. Both leaders can bond over their common personality traits. Both like to cast themselves as political outsiders; both were famous celebrities before they entered politics; they are both part of the same elite they love to hate (something overlooked by their voters); and both believe in punching back harder. Therefore, it is entirely in the realm of possibility that Trump meets Khan, takes a liking to him, and this fairytale continues until the next heartbreak.